Sat, Nov 16, 2024·Centre Bell, Montreal
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Montréal Canadiens 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 012 | 17 | 07 | 126 |
| MTL | 116 | 15 | 39 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:59MTLMike MathesonPPAssists: Cole Caufield, Kirby Dach · Slap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 7:40CBJDante FabbroAssists: Zach Werenski, Kevin Labanc · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 15:49MTLNick SuzukiGWGAssists: Joel Armia, Arber Xhekaj · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 11:04MTLLucas CondottaAssists: Joel Armia · Snap, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 12:52MTLJake EvansAssists: Cole Caufield · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 15:55MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Mike Matheson, Lane Hutson · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:59MTLCole Caufield: Slashing2 min
- P1 3:43CBJDamon Severson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 5:28CBJKevin Labanc: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:04CBJSean Monahan: Interference2 min
- P2 8:09CBJMathieu Olivier: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:09MTLArber Xhekaj: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:19MTLJoel Armia: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:59MTLJayden Struble: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:51CBJAdam Fantilli: Interference2 min
- P3 18:08MTLEmil Heineman: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Danforth
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMonahan – Marchenko – Voronkov9:20
xG 0.23–0.04 (84%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Olivier – Danforth – Pyyhtia5:19
xG 0.31–0.16 (66%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Labanc – Aston-Reese8:12
xG 0.28–0.26 (52%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
- Chinakhov – Sillinger – Fantilli6:14
xG 0.08–0.39 (16%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Werenski – Fabbro17:40
xG 0.55–0.51 (52%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Harris – Christiansen10:24
xG 0.30–0.45 (40%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Severson – Provorov14:17
xG 0.32–0.53 (38%)attempts 16–11goals 0–2
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Suzuki – Dach3:26
xG 0.22–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Evans – Caufield – Newhook8:34
xG 0.42–0.22 (66%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Dvorak9:25
xG 0.30–0.20 (61%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Armia – Heineman – Condotta4:45
xG 0.13–0.10 (57%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGuhle – Barron8:07
xG 0.36–0.12 (75%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Guhle – Xhekaj3:06
xG 0.18–0.08 (68%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Matheson – Guhle2:55
xG 0.10–0.02 (83%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).