Sat, Nov 16, 2024·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Buffalo Sabres 2, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 08 | 011 | 26 | 225 |
| PHI | 210 | 214 | 18 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:57PHITyson FoersterPPAssists: Anthony Richard, Joel Farabee · Poke, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 16:01PHITravis SanheimAssists: Egor Zamula, Travis Konecny · Snap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 2:08PHIEgor ZamulaGWGAssists: Anthony Richard, Matvei Michkov · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–3
- P2 17:07PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Matvei Michkov, Travis Sanheim · Snap, 0.19 xG0–4
- P3 10:06BUFRasmus DahlinPPAssists: Alex Tuch, Jason Zucker · Slap, 0.04 xG1–4
- P3 18:55BUFRyan McLeodAssists: JJ Peterka, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–4
- P3 19:42PHITravis KonecnyENAssists: Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.82 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:44BUFConnor Clifton: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:58BUFZach Benson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:39PHITravis Konecny: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:53BUFRasmus Dahlin: Interference2 min
- P2 15:22PHIEmil Andrae: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:24BUFRasmus Dahlin: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:07BUFZach Benson: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:07PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:57PHITravis Sanheim: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 10:26BUFNicolas Aube-Kubel: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:03PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McLeod won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestZucker – Krebs – Kulich9:20
xG 0.42–0.11 (79%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Aube-Kubel – Lafferty – Malenstyn8:03
xG 0.14–0.12 (55%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Cozens – Quinn – Benson8:08
xG 0.32–0.46 (41%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Tuch – McLeod – Peterka9:10
xG 0.25–0.40 (39%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBryson – Power12:06
xG 0.35–0.15 (70%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Dahlin – Byram12:59
xG 0.72–0.74 (49%)attempts 17–18goals 0–1
- Clifton – Gilbert8:04
xG 0.12–0.15 (45%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Konecny – Tippett7:20
xG 0.45–0.11 (81%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Poehling – Foerster5:20
xG 0.32–0.12 (72%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Laughton – Farabee – Brink6:14
xG 0.02–0.13 (11%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Richard – Cates – Michkov7:46
xG 0.25–0.52 (33%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Andrae11:34
xG 0.85–0.37 (70%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Sanheim2:56
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Zamula2:12
xG 0.05–0.14 (28%)attempts 2–3goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).