Sat, Nov 16, 2024·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
San Jose Sharks 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 010 | 17 | 211 | 01 | 2 | 329 |
| PIT | 210 | 110 | 010 | 06 | 3 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:01PITBryan RustAssists: Michael Bunting, Evgeni Malkin · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 6:34PITJesse PuljujarviAssists: Drew O'Connor, Owen Pickering · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 4:19PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Erik Karlsson, Anthony Beauvillier · Slap, 0.02 xG0–3
- P2 12:05SJSTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Will Smith · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 6:56SJSMikael GranlundAssists: Fabian Zetterlund, William Eklund · Snap, 0.18 xG2–3
- P3 11:40SJSTyler ToffoliAssists: Ty Dellandrea, Jake Walman · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PIT Rickard Rakell stopped
- 2. SJS Mikael Granlund scored
- 3. PIT Sidney Crosby scored
- 4. SJS Macklin Celebrini stopped
- 5. PIT Bryan Rust stopped
- 6. SJS Will Smith stopped
- 7. PIT Anthony Beauvillier scored
- 8. SJS William Eklund scored
- 9. PIT Evgeni Malkin scored
- 10. SJS Alexander Wennberg stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:58PITMarcus Pettersson: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:19PITVasily Ponomarev: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 16:16SJSJan Rutta: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:00PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:27PITAnthony Beauvillier: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Granlund won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Wennberg – Dellandrea8:35
xG 0.41–0.32 (56%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Kunin – Grundstrom – Kostin6:54
xG 0.31–0.35 (47%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
- Granlund – Zetterlund – Eklund13:46
xG 0.32–0.67 (32%)attempts 12–21goals 1–0
- Goodrow – Smith – Celebrini10:39
xG 0.27–0.73 (27%)attempts 7–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWalman – Rutta14:07
xG 0.48–0.11 (82%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Walman – Liljegren2:22
xG 0.05–0.04 (58%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Rutta3:18
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestNieto – Acciari – Ponomarev6:55
xG 0.49–0.21 (70%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Puljujarvi – Poulin – O'Connor10:30
xG 0.71–0.53 (57%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rakell – Beauvillier14:05
xG 0.52–0.39 (57%)attempts 23–12goals 1–1
- Malkin – Rust – Bunting10:59
xG 0.31–0.30 (51%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Pettersson18:28
xG 0.99–0.46 (68%)attempts 25–19goals 1–1
- Shea – Pickering9:10
xG 0.73–0.24 (75%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – St. Ivany15:26
xG 0.47–0.24 (66%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).