Sat, Nov 16, 2024·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Dallas Stars 2, Minnesota Wild 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 115 | 011 | 114 | 240 |
| MIN | 07 | 04 | 112 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:43DALMason MarchmentAssists: Ilya Lyubushkin, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P3 11:24DALMason MarchmentGWGAssists: Sam Steel, Ilya Lyubushkin · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P3 14:10MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Matt Boldy · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:12MINFrederick Gaudreau: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:10DALBrendan Smith: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:10MINJake Middleton: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:31MINZach Bogosian: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:31DALMathew Dumba: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:36DALBrendan Smith: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:56DALJamie Benn: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Rossi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Seguin – Marchment12:50
xG 0.80–0.25 (76%)attempts 20–12goals 1–1
- Steel – Bäck – Bourque6:29
xG 0.35–0.08 (82%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Benn – Stankoven – Johnston10:15
xG 0.26–0.07 (78%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Hintz – Robertson10:31
xG 0.32–0.37 (46%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLyubushkin – Harley10:02
xG 0.64–0.21 (75%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
- Heiskanen – Harley5:35
xG 0.49–0.18 (74%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Lindell – Lyubushkin4:27
xG 0.24–0.02 (93%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Kaprizov – Boldy8:55
xG 0.44–0.23 (65%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Kaprizov – Boldy – Rossi3:52
xG 0.28–0.16 (64%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Foligno – Hartman – Trenin4:04
xG 0.10–0.09 (54%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Lauko – Khusnutdinov – Milne4:38
xG 0.01–0.01 (49%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Chisholm – Faber2:31
xG 0.07–0.27 (21%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Middleton – Faber15:34
xG 0.58–0.85 (40%)attempts 20–20goals 0–1
- Spurgeon – Chisholm15:04
xG 0.31–0.61 (34%)attempts 12–23goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).