Sat, Nov 16, 2024·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Detroit Red Wings 1, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 97% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 05 | 05 | 18 | 118 |
| LAK | 215 | 014 | 212 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:05LAKMikey AndersonAssists: Phillip Danault, Trevor Moore · Snap, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 18:27LAKTanner JeannotGWGAssists: Trevor Lewis, Samuel Helenius · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 0:15LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Warren Foegele, Vladislav Gavrikov · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 18:33DETDylan LarkinAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Vladimir Tarasenko · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 19:11LAKAdrian KempeENAssists: Anze Kopitar, Trevor Lewis · Wrist, 0.73 xG1–4
Penalties (1)
- P3 5:00DETJ.T. Compher: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Kane – Tarasenko – Kasper8:08
xG 0.26–0.43 (38%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Berggren – Kasper4:39
xG 0.10–0.32 (25%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Motte – Fischer – Veleno11:20
xG 0.01–0.30 (4%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Copp – Compher – Berggren7:11
xG 0.18–0.49 (27%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Petry – Gustafsson17:39
xG 0.46–0.85 (35%)attempts 16–16goals 0–1
- Holl – Johansson11:41
xG 0.36–0.87 (29%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Chiarot – Seider21:07
xG 0.39–1.06 (27%)attempts 20–29goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Fiala – Moore12:36
xG 1.18–0.30 (80%)attempts 24–15goals 1–0
- Foegele – Byfield – Laferriere12:23
xG 0.80–0.16 (83%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Turcotte8:39
xG 0.64–0.29 (69%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Lewis – Jeannot – Helenius8:45
xG 0.18–0.04 (80%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Anderson19:57
xG 1.98–0.50 (80%)attempts 26–22goals 2–0
- Moverare – Spence13:43
xG 0.66–0.17 (80%)attempts 19–13goals 1–0
- Edmundson – Clarke15:37
xG 0.74–0.47 (61%)attempts 16–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 97% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).