Sun, Nov 17, 2024·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Nashville Predators 5, Vancouver Canucks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 15 | 315 | 12 | 522 |
| VAN | 19 | 112 | 16 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:28NSHZachary L'HeureuxAssists: Cole Smith, Michael McCarron · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 11:34VANAatu RätyAssists: Erik Brannstrom, Danton Heinen · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 9:51VANElias PetterssonPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Conor Garland · Slap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 12:17NSHSteven StamkosPPAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 14:21NSHRoman JosiAssists: Brady Skjei, Filip Forsberg · Slap, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 19:38NSHSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 14:00VANKiefer SherwoodAssists: Danton Heinen, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 19:39NSHGustav NyquistENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.34 xG5–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 8:29NSHColton Sissons: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:35VANNils Hoglander: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 18:59VANConor Garland: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 4:14NSHLuke Evangelista: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Blueger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestMcCarron – Smith – L'Heureux7:22
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg11:33
xG 0.43–0.43 (50%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Marchessault – Novak – Parssinen9:25
xG 0.08–0.45 (15%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Sissons – Evangelista7:58
xG 0.06–0.64 (9%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Josi – Skjei16:41
xG 0.58–0.72 (45%)attempts 16–15goals 2–1
- Schenn – Del Gaizo15:29
xG 0.10–0.45 (18%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Lauzon – Carrier16:26
xG 0.21–0.73 (22%)attempts 10–22goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBlueger – Joshua – Garland9:27
xG 0.53–0.31 (63%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- DeBrusk – Pettersson – Sherwood11:52
xG 0.44–0.24 (64%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Heinen – Hoglander – Räty7:45
xG 0.41–0.32 (56%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Miller – Suter – Lekkerimäki7:21
xG 0.17–0.15 (53%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHronek – Hughes17:40
xG 1.34–0.17 (89%)attempts 26–7goals 1–1
- Juulsen – Brannstrom12:02
xG 0.32–0.11 (74%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Soucy – Hronek4:39
xG 0.21–0.32 (39%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).