Sun, Nov 17, 2024·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Washington Capitals 5, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 212 | 26 | 17 | 525 |
| VGK | 16 | 111 | 025 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:59WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 12:26WSHJakob ChychrunAssists: Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P1 19:52VGKBrett HowdenAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Tanner Pearson · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 2:49WSHJakub VranaGWGAssists: Aliaksei Protas, Rasmus Sandin · Snap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 7:24VGKKeegan KolesarAssists: Tomas Hertl, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P2 17:38WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Matt Roy · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 19:23WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: Aliaksei Protas, Martin Fehérváry · Backhand, 0.79 xG5–2
Penalties (2)
- P1 5:13VGKTomas Hertl: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 9:50WSHAlex Ovechkin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Eller – Vrana – Mangiapane8:43
xG 0.13–0.25 (34%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Dowd – Raddysh – Duhaime10:00
xG 0.13–0.34 (28%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Strome – Protas9:58
xG 0.38–0.73 (34%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Wilson – Dubois – McMichael13:54
xG 0.91–1.26 (42%)attempts 25–28goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Sandin12:46
xG 0.40–0.27 (60%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Carlson – Chychrun16:35
xG 0.63–0.78 (44%)attempts 16–18goals 0–1
- Roy – Chychrun2:47
xG 0.06–0.26 (18%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Kolesar – Roy15:38
xG 1.10–0.33 (77%)attempts 23–15goals 0–0
- Barbashev – Eichel – Dorofeyev14:55
xG 0.85–0.82 (51%)attempts 25–22goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Howden – Holtz2:06
xG 0.05–0.10 (32%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Pearson – Howden6:54
xG 0.23–0.36 (38%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Theodore16:48
xG 0.89–0.32 (73%)attempts 18–16goals 1–1
- Hanifin – Whitecloud14:45
xG 1.04–0.78 (57%)attempts 21–16goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Hanifin2:50
xG 0.12–0.05 (70%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).