Mon, Nov 18, 2024·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Colorado Avalanche 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 010 | 29 | 110 | 329 |
| PHI | 08 | 05 | 213 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:30COLCale MakarAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 15:08COLCale MakarPPAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P3 8:34COLCasey MittelstadtGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–0
- P3 11:48PHIOwen TippettAssists: Travis Konecny, Travis Sanheim · Snap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 13:32PHITyson FoersterAssists: Bobby Brink, Helge Grans · Poke, 0.17 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 12:03COLMikko Rantanen: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:17PHITyson Foerster: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:20COLNathan MacKinnon: Holding2 min
- P2 5:33PHIGarnet Hathaway: Interference2 min
- P2 13:52PHIMatvei Michkov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 2:49COLMiles Wood: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:49PHIOwen Tippett: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:41COLNathan MacKinnon: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:41COLNathan MacKinnon: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 6:32PHIBobby Brink: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:13PHIHelge Grans: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kelly won the faceoff against Laughton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Drouin10:50
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- O'Connor – Kiviranta – Ivan5:27
xG 0.25–0.22 (53%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Wood – Kelly – Kovalenko6:00
xG 0.21–0.18 (54%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Kelly – O'Connor – Kiviranta3:28
xG 0.11–0.12 (48%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Toews – Makar13:30
xG 0.53–0.59 (47%)attempts 20–14goals 1–1
- Manson – Girard12:30
xG 0.18–0.27 (40%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Kylington – Malinski8:52
xG 0.30–0.47 (38%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLaughton – Farabee – Brink5:22
xG 0.32–0.15 (68%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Laughton – Farabee – Michkov4:11
xG 0.18–0.07 (72%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Richard – Cates – Michkov4:21
xG 0.01–0.07 (16%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Couturier – Konecny – Tippett9:58
xG 0.28–0.44 (39%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestZamula – Grans8:16
xG 0.62–0.09 (88%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Grans4:43
xG 0.14–0.05 (73%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Johnson – Seeler7:56
xG 0.15–0.15 (51%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).