Mon, Nov 18, 2024·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Anaheim Ducks 4, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 211 | 16 | 110 | 427 |
| DAL | 09 | 011 | 216 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:56ANAOlen ZellwegerAssists: Ryan Strome · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 5:44ANABrett LeasonAssists: Pavel Mintyukov, Radko Gudas · Snap, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 7:39ANACutter GauthierPPGWGAssists: Brett Leason, Alex Killorn · Snap, 0.18 xG3–0
- P3 3:31DALEsa LindellAssists: Mavrik Bourque, Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 12:08DALMatt DucheneAssists: Tyler Seguin, Mason Marchment · Backhand, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 14:32ANAJackson LaCombeAssists: Brett Leason, Cutter Gauthier · Backhand, 0.09 xG4–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 18:59DALMiro Heiskanen: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:26ANAOlen Zellweger: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:28DALThomas Harley: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:56ANADrew Helleson: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hintz won the faceoff against Harkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestLundeström – Leason – Gauthier9:31
xG 0.57–0.38 (60%)attempts 13–9goals 2–1
- Killorn – Zegras – Carlsson12:13
xG 0.33–0.30 (53%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- McGinn – Johnston – Harkins4:31
xG 0.03–0.25 (11%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Strome – Vatrano – Terry12:13
xG 0.32–1.26 (20%)attempts 13–22goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Gudas – Mintyukov15:07
xG 0.42–0.87 (33%)attempts 15–20goals 1–2
- LaCombe – Zellweger16:18
xG 0.70–1.22 (37%)attempts 17–29goals 2–0
- Dumoulin – Helleson16:51
xG 0.13–0.69 (16%)attempts 6–18goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Seguin – Marchment10:59
xG 1.14–0.07 (95%)attempts 18–3goals 1–1
- Benn – Bourque – Stankoven7:15
xG 0.61–0.17 (78%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Steel – Bäck – Bourque4:15
xG 0.32–0.04 (89%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Steel – Bäck3:56
xG 0.38–0.26 (59%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Dumba10:19
xG 0.83–0.18 (82%)attempts 19–4goals 1–1
- Lyubushkin – Harley8:20
xG 0.67–0.09 (88%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Heiskanen – Harley9:10
xG 0.34–0.12 (73%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).