Mon, Nov 18, 2024·Delta Center, Salt Lake City
Washington Capitals 6, Utah Hockey Club 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 38 | 110 | 26 | 624 |
| UTA | 111 | 18 | 07 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:05UTAJack McBainAssists: Kevin Stenlund, Ian Cole · Snap, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 7:46WSHDylan StromeUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.01 xG1–1
- P1 7:56WSHNic DowdAssists: Brandon Duhaime, Taylor Raddysh · Snap, 0.17 xG2–1
- P1 11:05WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois · Snap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 5:38WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Dylan Strome · Slap, 0.10 xG4–1
- P2 11:44UTANick BjugstadAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Clayton Keller · Snap, 0.30 xG4–2
- P3 7:30WSHBrandon DuhaimeAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–2
- P3 9:56WSHAliaksei ProtasAssists: Andrew Mangiapane · Snap, 0.07 xG6–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 5:05WSHAlex Ovechkin: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:02UTAJuuso Välimäki: Interference2 min
- P1 14:46WSHAlex Ovechkin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 16:21WSHDylan Strome: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 19:32WSHAlex Ovechkin: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 3:51UTAMaveric Lamoureux: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 5:34UTAJack McBain: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:15WSHJohn Carlson: Interference2 min
- P2 14:11WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:11WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:11UTALawson Crouse: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:39WSHJakub Vrana: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:51UTAJack McBain: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:51WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Hayton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Mangiapane – Strome2:34
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Protas4:33
xG 0.04–0.07 (38%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Dowd – Raddysh – Duhaime5:23
xG 0.26–0.42 (38%)attempts 4–6goals 1–1
- Eller – Vrana – Mangiapane5:46
xG 0.15–0.46 (24%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Fehérváry3:20
xG 0.29–0.07 (81%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Carlson – Sandin2:00
xG 0.20–0.11 (64%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Chychrun3:16
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Crouse – Hayton8:39
xG 0.73–0.10 (88%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Stenlund – Carcone – McBain7:22
xG 0.57–0.05 (92%)attempts 7–3goals 1–1
- Maccelli – Guenther – Cooley8:15
xG 0.42–0.23 (65%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Bjugstad – Schmaltz – Keller9:10
xG 0.52–0.51 (50%)attempts 10–7goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestVälimäki – Kesselring9:32
xG 0.65–0.08 (89%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Cole – Lamoureux11:25
xG 0.50–0.20 (71%)attempts 9–6goals 1–3
- Cole – Maatta2:14
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
UTA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line UTA is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (UTA − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).