Tue, Nov 19, 2024·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Edmonton Oilers 5, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 314 | 19 | 18 | 531 |
| OTT | 112 | 05 | 112 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:46EDMEvan BouchardAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Vasily Podkolzin · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 15:40OTTTim StützleAssists: Drake Batherson, Nick Jensen · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 16:15EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Vasily Podkolzin, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P1 19:19EDMConnor McDavidPPGWGAssists: Evan Bouchard, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–1
- P2 4:39EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Connor McDavid, Adam Henrique · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–1
- P3 11:50EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Derek Ryan, Brett Kulak · Tip-in, 0.11 xG5–1
- P3 17:36OTTJosh NorrisAssists: Nick Jensen, Brady Tkachuk · Tip-in, 0.07 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:28EDMJoshua Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:28OTTZack MacEwen: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:41OTTJosh Norris: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:43OTTClaude Giroux: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P2 2:16EDMAdam Henrique: Holding2 min
- P2 19:55OTTTim Stützle: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:45EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:22EDMMattias Janmark: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:22OTTJosh Norris: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – McDavid – Podkolzin11:13
xG 0.57–0.39 (59%)attempts 15–6goals 2–0
- Henrique – Brown – Janmark7:04
xG 0.07–0.19 (28%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Skinner – Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins8:00
xG 0.28–0.44 (39%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard14:44
xG 1.08–0.56 (66%)attempts 22–11goals 2–0
- Brown – Dermott4:29
xG 0.19–0.02 (90%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Dermott – Emberson4:21
xG 0.07–0.11 (39%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Batherson – Stützle11:11
xG 0.59–0.33 (64%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Norris – Tkachuk – Greig7:44
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Cousins – Gaudette – MacEwen4:43
xG 0.04–0.03 (55%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Amadio – Pinto – Greig2:10
xG 0.02–0.05 (25%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Chabot7:40
xG 0.47–0.23 (67%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Jensen – Chabot6:39
xG 0.54–0.51 (52%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
- Sanderson – Zub14:42
xG 0.36–0.39 (48%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).