Tue, Nov 19, 2024·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
New York Islanders 1, Calgary Flames 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 07 | 18 | 013 | 01 | 0 | 129 |
| CGY | 08 | 07 | 114 | 02 | 2 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:32NYIPierre EngvallAssists: Scott Mayfield, Dennis Cholowski · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P3 8:17CGYRasmus AnderssonPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Martin Pospisil · Slap, 0.09 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. CGY Yegor Sharangovich stopped
- 2. NYI Kyle Palmieri stopped
- 3. CGY Andrei Kuzmenko scored
- 4. NYI Bo Horvat stopped
- 5. CGY Justin Kirkland scored
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:26CGYRasmus Andersson: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:14CGYBlake Coleman: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:32NYIScott Mayfield: Tripping2 min · PPG
- OT 3:53CGYMikael Backlund: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMartin – Wahlstrom – MacLean7:28
xG 0.15–0.05 (76%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Tsyplakov11:52
xG 0.44–0.39 (53%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Horvat16:23
xG 1.14–1.19 (49%)attempts 16–21goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Engvall – Holmstrom10:54
xG 0.22–0.45 (33%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDobson – Romanov16:35
xG 0.97–0.64 (60%)attempts 17–17goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Cholowski11:11
xG 0.60–0.53 (53%)attempts 9–18goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Pulock2:00
xG 0.10–0.07 (60%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Sharangovich – Coronato4:03
xG 0.34–0.18 (65%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Sharangovich – Zary9:51
xG 0.46–0.31 (60%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Kadri – Pospisil – Kuzmenko13:08
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Coronato10:25
xG 0.63–0.69 (48%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Miromanov17:53
xG 1.09–0.48 (69%)attempts 24–13goals 0–1
- Weegar – Andersson2:20
xG 0.16–0.08 (68%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Andersson – Bahl18:18
xG 0.71–0.82 (47%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).