Wed, Nov 20, 2024·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 110 | 010 | 317 | 437 |
| PHI | 011 | 14 | 04 | 119 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:30CARJalen ChatfieldAssists: Jordan Martinook, William Carrier · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 2:13PHIRyan PoehlingAssists: Nick Seeler, Noah Cates · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 1:03CARSebastian AhoGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 6:02CARJordan StaalAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Jalen Chatfield · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 6:57CARJack RoslovicAssists: Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.23 xG4–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:47PHITyson Foerster: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 4:05CARAndrei Svechnikov: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:04CARSebastian Aho: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 19:38CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laughton won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNecas – Robinson – Kotkaniemi11:23
xG 0.73–0.14 (83%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Martinook – Aho – Roslovic5:31
xG 0.62–0.07 (89%)attempts 14–2goals 2–0
- Staal – Carrier – Svechnikov5:40
xG 0.68–0.24 (74%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Jost – Drury – Blake11:18
xG 0.45–0.03 (93%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Chatfield17:14
xG 1.45–0.20 (88%)attempts 30–8goals 2–0
- Burns – Slavin17:08
xG 0.89–0.43 (68%)attempts 21–12goals 2–0
- Gostisbehere – Walker15:56
xG 0.90–0.59 (61%)attempts 27–7goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestKonecny – Cates – Michkov2:25
xG 0.17–0.08 (68%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Couturier – Tippett – Foerster2:43
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Poehling – Foerster7:52
xG 0.01–0.33 (3%)attempts 1–11goals 0–1
- Laughton – Richard – Brink5:26
xG 0.05–0.53 (9%)attempts 2–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Zamula – Grans15:21
xG 0.65–0.75 (47%)attempts 9–23goals 0–2
- Johnson – Seeler14:48
xG 0.21–0.75 (22%)attempts 9–26goals 1–1
- Ristolainen – Sanheim16:34
xG 0.22–1.46 (13%)attempts 6–26goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).