Thu, Nov 21, 2024·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 115 | 112 | 15 | 332 |
| OTT | 014 | 08 | 218 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:45VGKJack EichelAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 10:51VGKBrett HowdenAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P3 7:17OTTAdam GaudettePPAssists: Ridly Greig, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 9:17VGKPavel DorofeyevGWGAssists: William Karlsson, Alexander Holtz · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 12:38OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Jake Sanderson, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P2 4:10VGKShea Theodore: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:13OTTJosh Norris: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:49OTTTyler Kleven: Boarding2 min
- P2 14:49VGKTanner Pearson: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:49OTTTyler Kleven: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:19VGKIlya Samsonov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 13:21VGKTomas Hertl: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Kolesar – Roy9:53
xG 0.82–0.17 (83%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Pearson – Schwindt – Burke4:19
xG 0.28–0.08 (77%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Barbashev – Eichel – Holtz8:50
xG 0.54–0.40 (57%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Dorofeyev – Burke2:14
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Whitecloud15:51
xG 1.25–0.82 (60%)attempts 20–20goals 1–0
- Hagg – Korczak7:33
xG 0.28–0.12 (71%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- McNabb – Theodore17:56
xG 0.78–1.19 (40%)attempts 16–21goals 1–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBatherson – Tkachuk – Stützle7:39
xG 0.59–0.22 (73%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Giroux – Batherson – Stützle4:32
xG 0.21–0.34 (38%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Cousins – Gaudette – MacEwen2:41
xG 0.01–0.22 (3%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Perron – Amadio – Pinto6:20
xG 0.08–0.32 (20%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub14:29
xG 1.29–0.46 (74%)attempts 23–11goals 0–1
- Chabot – Sanderson3:49
xG 0.29–0.16 (65%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Bernard-Docker – Kleven8:21
xG 0.11–0.68 (14%)attempts 8–12goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).