Thu, Nov 21, 2024·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
New York Islanders 1, Detroit Red Wings 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 19 | 06 | 08 | 123 |
| DET | 011 | 011 | 29 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:51NYISimon HolmstromAssists: Scott Mayfield · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
- P3 15:14DETJonatan BerggrenAssists: J.T. Compher · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 19:08DETLucas RaymondGWGAssists: Dylan Larkin, Simon Edvinsson · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:18NYIRyan Pulock: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:19NYIAlexander Romanov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:26NYIPierre Engvall: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:41DETChristian Fischer: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Rasmussen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMartin – Wahlstrom – MacLean5:16
xG 0.11–0.05 (68%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Horvat12:34
xG 0.43–0.47 (48%)attempts 16–15goals 0–1
- Palmieri – Nelson – Tsyplakov13:21
xG 0.40–0.55 (42%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Engvall – Holmstrom9:02
xG 0.21–0.49 (30%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Cholowski11:19
xG 0.29–0.14 (68%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Dobson – George2:20
xG 0.00–0.05 (4%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Pulock2:44
xG 0.00–0.11 (2%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – DeBrincat – Kasper12:10
xG 0.79–0.27 (74%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Motte – Larkin – Raymond5:46
xG 0.38–0.18 (68%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Motte – Compher – Berggren5:01
xG 0.25–0.07 (78%)attempts 9–2goals 0–1
- Tarasenko – Compher – Berggren4:06
xG 0.16–0.10 (62%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeider – Edvinsson17:47
xG 0.56–0.38 (60%)attempts 18–16goals 0–0
- Petry – Chiarot15:54
xG 0.58–0.44 (57%)attempts 21–15goals 1–0
- Gustafsson – Johansson9:42
xG 0.27–0.42 (39%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).