Thu, Nov 21, 2024·Prudential Center, Newark
Carolina Hurricanes 2, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 17 | 07 | 18 | 222 |
| NJD | 19 | 18 | 24 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:43CARJack RoslovicAssists: Eric Robinson, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P1 14:45NJDJesper BrattAssists: Jack Hughes, Ondrej Palat · Snap, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 0:46NJDStefan NoesenPPAssists: Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt · Tip-in, 0.23 xG1–2
- P3 0:12CARAndrei SvechnikovPPAssists: Martin Necas, Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 10:35NJDDougie HamiltonGWGAssists: Dawson Mercer, Tomas Tatar · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 14:05NJDJesper BrattPPAssists: Stefan Noesen, Jack Hughes · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:55NJDDougie Hamilton: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:46CARShayne Gostisbehere: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:49CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:43NJDPaul Cotter: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 12:55CARJackson Blake: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNecas – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov4:06
xG 0.25–0.07 (78%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Necas – Robinson – Kotkaniemi7:17
xG 0.37–0.22 (63%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Aho – Roslovic – Blake4:26
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Staal – Martinook – Carrier3:19
xG 0.13–0.14 (47%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Walker11:52
xG 0.56–0.47 (54%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
- Orlov – Chatfield15:10
xG 0.53–0.53 (50%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Burns – Slavin16:30
xG 0.37–0.84 (30%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Bratt – Hughes10:24
xG 0.60–0.22 (73%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Tatar – Dowling – Bowers5:19
xG 0.23–0.04 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Noesen – Meier – Hischier9:41
xG 0.42–0.26 (62%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Haula – Cotter – Mercer6:32
xG 0.28–0.28 (50%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSiegenthaler – Kovacevic15:34
xG 0.51–0.10 (84%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Dillon – Hamilton12:57
xG 0.65–0.52 (55%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
- Pesce – Hughes15:51
xG 0.64–0.63 (50%)attempts 18–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).