Thu, Nov 21, 2024·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Minnesota Wild 5, Edmonton Oilers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 19 | 310 | 17 | 526 |
| EDM | 17 | 113 | 111 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:27EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.00 xG0–1
- P1 9:56MINMatt BoldyAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 3:09MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Declan Chisholm, Frederick Gaudreau · Snap, 0.30 xG2–1
- P2 6:03EDMCorey PerryUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 9:10MINMarcus JohanssonAssists: Ryan Hartman · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P2 17:02MINFrederick GaudreauGWGAssists: Ryan Hartman · Tip-in, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 9:50MINFrederick GaudreauAssists: Jake Middleton, Marcus Foligno · Snap, 0.14 xG5–2
- P3 19:35EDMJeff SkinnerAssists: Corey Perry, Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:57EDMVasily Podkolzin: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:37MINMatt Boldy: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:37EDMDrake Caggiula: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:19MINRyan Hartman: Holding2 min
- P3 10:44MINMarat Khusnutdinov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestEriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy12:21
xG 0.77–0.10 (89%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Foligno – Gaudreau – Trenin8:26
xG 0.82–0.45 (64%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Johansson – Hartman – Rossi10:20
xG 0.30–0.14 (68%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Shore – Lauko – Khusnutdinov5:50
xG 0.05–0.26 (17%)attempts 1–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Chisholm11:10
xG 0.80–0.10 (89%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Spurgeon – Brodin17:11
xG 0.72–0.54 (57%)attempts 13–21goals 2–1
- Middleton – Faber16:19
xG 0.59–1.06 (36%)attempts 14–20goals 2–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – McDavid – Podkolzin12:22
xG 1.09–0.54 (67%)attempts 19–13goals 1–1
- Perry – Draisaitl – McDavid2:54
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Skinner – Nugent-Hopkins – Kapanen7:37
xG 0.09–0.15 (37%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Henrique – Brown – Janmark7:21
xG 0.16–0.48 (25%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Ekholm – Bouchard17:50
xG 1.10–1.12 (49%)attempts 26–18goals 1–2
- Kulak – Emberson12:46
xG 0.16–0.56 (23%)attempts 10–12goals 1–2
- Brown – Stecher10:44
xG 0.05–0.54 (8%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).