Sat, Nov 23, 2024·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Minnesota Wild 3, Calgary Flames 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 18 | 03 | 210 | 02 | 1 | 323 |
| CGY | 18 | 111 | 19 | 03 | 2 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:00CGYKevin RooneyAssists: Daniil Miromanov, Justin Kirkland · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 16:03MINMarcus JohanssonAssists: Matt Boldy · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 19:29CGYMartin PospisilPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Rasmus Andersson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 3:53CGYYegor SharangovichPPAssists: Connor Zary, MacKenzie Weegar · Slap, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 16:01MINBrock FaberPPAssists: Marco Rossi, Matt Boldy · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 19:26MINMarco RossiAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CGY Yegor Sharangovich stopped
- 2. MIN Frederick Gaudreau scored
- 3. CGY Andrei Kuzmenko stopped
- 4. MIN Matt Boldy stopped
- 5. CGY Justin Kirkland scored
- 6. MIN Joel Eriksson Ek stopped
- 7. CGY Matt Coronato stopped
- 8. MIN Marco Rossi stopped
- 9. CGY Rasmus Andersson scored
- 10. MIN Ryan Hartman stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:12CGYDaniil Miromanov: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:41CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:49MINMatt Boldy: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:49CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:50MINJakub Lauko: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 1:56MINRyan Hartman: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:27CGYKevin Rooney: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Hartman – Rossi6:41
xG 0.24–0.02 (91%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy12:24
xG 0.45–0.31 (59%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Boyd – Shore – Jones5:34
xG 0.00–0.34 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Trenin – Lauko8:13
xG 0.05–0.39 (11%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Brodin14:49
xG 0.36–0.23 (62%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Brodin – Middleton2:00
xG 0.32–0.26 (56%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Merrill10:42
xG 0.61–0.64 (49%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestColeman – Huberdeau – Zary11:25
xG 0.68–0.20 (77%)attempts 14–4goals 0–1
- Kirkland – Lomberg – Rooney5:16
xG 0.55–0.18 (75%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Backlund – Sharangovich – Coronato12:51
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Kadri – Pospisil – Kuzmenko8:30
xG 0.25–0.22 (53%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Bahl17:49
xG 0.89–0.49 (64%)attempts 23–16goals 0–1
- Weegar – Miromanov14:40
xG 0.58–0.33 (64%)attempts 9–19goals 1–0
- Hanley – Pachal10:36
xG 0.23–0.05 (81%)attempts 15–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).