Sat, Nov 23, 2024·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Colorado Avalanche 7, Florida Panthers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 18 | 410 | 27 | 725 |
| FLA | 27 | 15 | 119 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:52FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Anton Lundell, Mackie Samoskevich · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 9:13COLJonathan DrouinAssists: Cale Makar, Artturi Lehkonen · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 15:44FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Niko Mikkola · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 0:34COLJonathan DrouinAssists: Cale Makar, Devon Toews · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 4:04COLLogan O'ConnorAssists: Oliver Kylington, Ivan Ivan · Snap, 0.12 xG3–2
- P2 8:54COLSamuel GirardAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.00 xG4–2
- P2 16:58COLMikko RantanenGWGAssists: Samuel Girard, Devon Toews · Tip-in, 0.13 xG5–2
- P2 18:40FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Matthew Tkachuk · Tip-in, 0.07 xG5–3
- P3 15:49COLOliver KylingtonAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Mikko Rantanen · Snap, 0.16 xG6–3
- P3 17:15COLValeri NichushkinENAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.73 xG7–3
- P3 18:17FLAAnton LundellAssists: Mackie Samoskevich, Uvis Balinskis · Wrist, 0.21 xG7–4
Penalties (7)
- P2 17:46COLIvan Ivan: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:02COLArtturi Lehkonen: Holding2 min
- P3 4:06COLJosh Manson: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:17FLAMackie Samoskevich: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 9:16FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:16COLMiles Wood: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:20COLJoel Kiviranta: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundell won the faceoff against Kelly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNichushkin – Rantanen – Mittelstadt10:31
xG 0.68–0.13 (84%)attempts 16–9goals 3–0
- MacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen2:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Wood – Kelly – Kovalenko6:40
xG 0.45–0.45 (50%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- O'Connor – Kiviranta – Ivan4:00
xG 0.12–0.13 (48%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKylington – Malinski10:59
xG 0.52–0.12 (81%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Toews – Makar16:54
xG 0.50–0.33 (60%)attempts 17–18goals 2–0
- Girard – Malinski2:48
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Lundell – Samoskevich8:28
xG 0.31–0.23 (58%)attempts 7–10goals 0–2
- Barkov – Reinhart – Rodrigues14:16
xG 0.20–0.22 (48%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Greer – Gadjovich – Boqvist5:10
xG 0.14–0.29 (33%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Bennett – Tkachuk – Luostarinen11:42
xG 0.39–0.67 (37%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMikkola – Boqvist2:23
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Balinskis3:32
xG 0.11–0.06 (66%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling18:03
xG 0.19–0.24 (45%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).