Sat, Nov 23, 2024·Centre Bell, Montreal
Vegas Golden Knights 6, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 012 | 513 | 13 | 628 |
| MTL | 06 | 02 | 29 | 217 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:39VGKTomas HertlAssists: Brayden McNabb, Shea Theodore · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 8:18VGKCallahan BurkeAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 9:09VGKIvan BarbashevGWGAssists: Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.16 xG3–0
- P2 10:35VGKTanner PearsonAssists: Noah Hanifin, Cole Schwindt · Snap, 0.16 xG4–0
- P2 17:02VGKKeegan KolesarAssists: Zach Whitecloud, Noah Hanifin · Snap, 0.15 xG5–0
- P3 2:03MTLEmil HeinemanPPAssists: Joel Armia, Brendan Gallagher · Snap, 0.09 xG5–1
- P3 13:03MTLJayden StrubleAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Josh Anderson · Snap, 0.19 xG5–2
- P3 18:12VGKJack EichelAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Shea Theodore · Snap, 0.11 xG6–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:01MTLCole Caufield: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 16:55VGKNicolas Hague: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:10VGKShea Theodore: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 2:50MTLArber Xhekaj: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestBarbashev – Eichel – Burke7:42
xG 0.61–0.23 (73%)attempts 8–8goals 3–0
- Hertl – Kolesar – Roy10:07
xG 0.56–0.33 (63%)attempts 14–12goals 2–0
- Barbashev – Eichel – Dorofeyev2:20
xG 0.24–0.10 (70%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Pearson – Schwindt – Holtz7:12
xG 0.16–0.05 (76%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore19:41
xG 1.15–0.41 (74%)attempts 19–17goals 3–0
- Hague – Korczak11:25
xG 0.76–0.87 (46%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Hanifin – Whitecloud13:35
xG 0.33–0.47 (41%)attempts 8–10goals 2–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestEvans – Caufield – Newhook5:41
xG 0.50–0.25 (66%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Suzuki – Caufield – Newhook6:35
xG 0.28–0.11 (71%)attempts 11–1goals 0–1
- Armia – Evans – Heineman2:43
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Dach – Slafkovský6:31
xG 0.33–0.40 (45%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Hutson5:55
xG 0.37–0.16 (70%)attempts 14–1goals 0–1
- Struble – Xhekaj10:20
xG 0.66–0.49 (57%)attempts 14–9goals 1–2
- Savard – Guhle2:35
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).