Sat, Nov 23, 2024·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Vancouver Canucks 4, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 17 | 210 | 14 | 421 |
| OTT | 08 | 19 | 212 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:36VANJake DeBruskPPAssists: Conor Garland, Filip Hronek · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 3:41OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Jake Sanderson, Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 9:23VANTeddy BluegerAssists: Max Sasson, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 13:01VANJake DeBruskAssists: Kiefer Sherwood, Elias Pettersson · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 8:41VANKiefer SherwoodGWGAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Elias Pettersson · Poke, 0.20 xG4–1
- P3 16:29OTTClaude GirouxPPAssists: Josh Norris · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 19:16OTTTim StützleAssists: Claude Giroux, Drake Batherson · Snap, 0.15 xG4–3
Penalties (19)
- P1 6:04VANNoah Juulsen: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:04OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:18OTTArtem Zub: Boarding2 min
- P1 12:29VANQuinn Hughes: Boarding5 min
- P1 12:29VANQuinn Hughes: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 18:12OTTArtem Zub: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:30OTTRidly Greig: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:02VANNils Hoglander: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:02OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 0:00VANCarson Soucy: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 0:00OTTBrady Tkachuk: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 11:24OTTNick Cousins: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:24OTTBrady Tkachuk: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:43OTTBrady Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:43VANDakota Joshua: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 13:43OTTBrady Tkachuk: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:37VANNils Hoglander: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:37OTTTim Stützle: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:37VANNils Hoglander: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestDeBrusk – Pettersson – Sherwood6:47
xG 0.51–0.02 (96%)attempts 9–4goals 2–0
- Räty – Bains – Sasson5:26
xG 0.01–0.01 (36%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Joshua – Garland – Suter7:21
xG 0.30–0.33 (48%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Blueger – Heinen – Hoglander6:38
xG 0.01–0.10 (6%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSoucy – Hronek4:18
xG 0.41–0.09 (81%)attempts 5–3goals 2–0
- Myers – Brannstrom9:12
xG 0.25–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Hronek – Brannstrom2:01
xG 0.14–0.01 (93%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Tkachuk – Stützle2:11
xG 0.11–0.03 (76%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Cousins – Gaudette – MacEwen4:13
xG 0.01–0.03 (35%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Tkachuk – Pinto – Greig4:41
xG 0.18–0.20 (48%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Perron – Amadio – Norris2:22
xG 0.03–0.07 (30%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Sanderson – Zub10:39
xG 0.21–0.26 (44%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Chabot2:11
xG 0.02–0.12 (14%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Kleven6:41
xG 0.01–0.12 (11%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).