Sat, Nov 23, 2024·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Boston Bruins 2, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 15 | 011 | 113 | 229 |
| DET | 18 | 07 | 05 | 120 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:33BOSJustin BrazeauPPAssists: Tyler Johnson, Mason Lohrei · Deflected, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 19:02DETLucas RaymondAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 11:30BOSBrad MarchandGWGAssists: Andrew Peeke, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:40DETMarco Kasper: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:56BOSTyler Johnson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 1:35BOSTyler Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:39DETLucas Raymond: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:15BOSParker Wotherspoon: Interference2 min
- P3 18:38BOSBrad Marchand: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Zacha
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestPastrnak – Zacha – Geekie10:16
xG 0.89–0.04 (95%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Kastelic – Koepke – Beecher6:28
xG 0.29–0.00 (99%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Coyle – Frederic7:17
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Marchand – Lindholm – Brazeau8:00
xG 0.10–0.38 (21%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcAvoy – Lohrei16:32
xG 0.69–0.28 (71%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Carlo – Wotherspoon9:05
xG 0.38–0.15 (72%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Zadorov – Peeke12:59
xG 0.33–0.13 (71%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Copp – Fischer – Rasmussen8:37
xG 0.19–0.16 (55%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Motte – Compher – Berggren7:45
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Larkin – Raymond12:11
xG 0.26–0.56 (31%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
- Kane – DeBrincat – Kasper8:18
xG 0.11–0.67 (14%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Chiarot15:11
xG 0.31–0.23 (57%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Holl – Gustafsson10:32
xG 0.19–0.25 (44%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Seider – Edvinsson14:41
xG 0.29–0.66 (31%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).