Sat, Nov 23, 2024·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Utah Hockey Club 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 211 | 19 | 310 | 630 |
| PIT | 010 | 112 | 06 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:54UTAJack McBainAssists: Dylan Guenther, Logan Cooley · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 13:07UTAMikhail SergachevGWGAssists: Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 3:11PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 10:37UTANick BjugstadPPAssists: Michael Kesselring, Michael Carcone · Deflected, 0.18 xG3–1
- P3 6:38UTADylan GuentherPPAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.29 xG4–1
- P3 7:25UTAAlexander KerfootAssists: Maveric Lamoureux, Michael Carcone · Tip-in, 0.11 xG5–1
- P3 15:59UTADylan GuentherPPAssists: Logan Cooley, Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.05 xG6–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:00UTAMaveric Lamoureux: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:21UTAMaveric Lamoureux: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 1:21UTANick Schmaltz: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:52PITJesse Puljujarvi: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:23PITMichael Bunting: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:03UTAMaveric Lamoureux: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:21PITMatt Grzelcyk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:42PITDrew O'Connor: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Stenlund – Carcone7:28
xG 0.40–0.11 (78%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- McBain – Guenther – Cooley9:21
xG 0.56–0.27 (67%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton11:27
xG 0.60–0.38 (61%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli10:49
xG 0.30–0.22 (57%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Lamoureux15:08
xG 1.03–0.40 (72%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Maatta – Sergachev14:36
xG 0.75–0.41 (65%)attempts 14–13goals 2–0
- Bortuzzo – Kesselring11:40
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Nieto – Acciari – Poulin2:25
xG 0.06–0.04 (62%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hayes – Nieto – Acciari4:45
xG 0.13–0.14 (47%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Hayes – Puljujarvi – O'Connor3:51
xG 0.01–0.08 (8%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Puljujarvi – Poulin – O'Connor5:43
xG 0.16–0.29 (36%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Pettersson4:17
xG 0.16–0.02 (87%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Grzelcyk2:13
xG 0.07–0.05 (58%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Letang – Pickering10:39
xG 0.20–0.21 (48%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).