Sat, Nov 23, 2024·Capital One Arena, Washington
New Jersey Devils 3, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 113 | 211 | 09 | 333 |
| WSH | 13 | 012 | 111 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:52WSHMatt RoyAssists: Rasmus Sandin, Hendrix Lapierre · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 16:31NJDTomas TatarPPAssists: Erik Haula, Luke Hughes · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 7:08NJDBrenden DillonAssists: Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 15:42NJDDougie HamiltonPPGWGAssists: Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier · Snap, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 4:54WSHConnor McMichaelPPUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:26WSHTom Wilson: High sticking2 min
- P1 4:44NJDStefan Noesen: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:39WSHNic Dowd: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:56NJDJohnathan Kovacevic: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:56WSHBrandon Duhaime: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:38WSHRasmus Sandin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:02NJDNico Hischier: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 18:02WSHConnor McMichael: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:28WSHNic Dowd: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:42NJDPaul Cotter: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 10:02WSHTaylor Raddysh: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Dowd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Dowling – Cotter7:53
xG 0.46–0.15 (76%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Palat – Bratt – Hughes8:48
xG 0.17–0.32 (35%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Noesen – Meier – Hischier10:02
xG 0.18–0.40 (31%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
- Haula – Foote – Mercer8:03
xG 0.08–0.32 (21%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Dillon – Hamilton9:25
xG 0.01–0.20 (4%)attempts 3–11goals 1–0
- Siegenthaler – Kovacevic13:00
xG 0.27–0.48 (36%)attempts 13–21goals 0–1
- Pesce – Hughes17:58
xG 0.69–0.92 (43%)attempts 16–27goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Mangiapane – Lapierre7:02
xG 0.34–0.11 (75%)attempts 14–5goals 1–1
- Dowd – Raddysh – Duhaime8:08
xG 0.42–0.25 (63%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Strome – Protas – Miroshnichenko6:53
xG 0.02–0.02 (52%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Wilson – Dubois – McMichael6:13
xG 0.14–0.19 (42%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Chychrun3:09
xG 0.55–0.03 (95%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Roy – Sandin12:58
xG 0.72–0.38 (65%)attempts 20–13goals 1–0
- Chychrun – Sandin2:35
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).