Sat, Nov 23, 2024·UBS Arena, Elmont
St. Louis Blues 1, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 07 | 08 | 110 | 125 |
| NYI | 112 | 112 | 17 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:51NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 15:55NYIBrock NelsonPPGWGAssists: Maxim Tsyplakov, Simon Holmstrom · Snap, 0.25 xG0–2
- P3 0:45STLJake NeighboursPPAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas · Snap, 0.29 xG1–2
- P3 19:23NYIKyle PalmieriENAssists: Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.77 xG1–3
Penalties (3)
- P2 6:35STLRobert Thomas: Holding2 min
- P2 15:30STLRyan Suter: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 0:35NYIIsaiah George: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Kyrou – Holloway3:41
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours7:31
xG 0.27–0.13 (67%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Faksa – Joseph – Holloway8:23
xG 0.23–0.14 (62%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Saad – Faksa – Joseph4:11
xG 0.08–0.20 (28%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJoseph – Kessel10:22
xG 0.53–0.29 (64%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Suter – Parayko22:24
xG 0.49–0.71 (41%)attempts 20–17goals 0–0
- Faulk – Perunovich17:29
xG 0.31–0.71 (31%)attempts 16–18goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Pageau – Horvat15:43
xG 0.96–0.42 (70%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Tsyplakov14:21
xG 0.66–0.41 (62%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Cizikas – Engvall – Holmstrom11:55
xG 0.13–0.26 (33%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Martin – Wahlstrom – MacLean7:35
xG 0.02–0.19 (10%)attempts 1–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPulock – George16:17
xG 0.96–0.46 (67%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Dobson – Romanov20:08
xG 0.59–0.39 (60%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Pulock2:56
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).