Mon, Nov 25, 2024·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Colorado Avalanche 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 8
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 17 | 04 | 114 | 225 |
| TBL | 512 | 111 | 210 | 833 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:41TBLNick PerbixUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 7:46TBLJake GuentzelPPAssists: Brandon Hagel, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 8:56COLIvan IvanAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Josh Manson · Poke, 0.19 xG1–2
- P1 10:03TBLNikita KucherovGWGAssists: Brandon Hagel · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P1 13:15TBLLuke GlendeningSHAssists: Brandon Hagel · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–4
- P1 19:46TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Erik Cernak, Brandon Hagel · Snap, 0.19 xG1–5
- P2 9:38TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Brandon Hagel, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–6
- P3 1:08COLIvan IvanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–6
- P3 3:09TBLJake GuentzelAssists: Nick Perbix · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–7
- P3 4:44TBLMichael EyssimontAssists: Zemgus Girgensons · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–8
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:28COLT.J. Tynan: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 11:22TBLJ.J. Moser: Interference2 min
- P2 3:16TBLNick Perbix: Holding2 min
- P2 7:50COLJosh Manson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:23TBLNick Perbix: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Geekie won the faceoff against Kelly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestTynan – Kelly – Kiviranta3:20
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Wood – O'Connor – Ivan3:13
xG 0.17–0.06 (74%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Nichushkin – Mittelstadt – Kovalenko4:04
xG 0.14–0.15 (49%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Kelly – O'Connor – Kiviranta5:13
xG 0.24–0.31 (44%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Malinski11:50
xG 0.43–0.38 (53%)attempts 11–10goals 0–3
- Toews – Makar14:55
xG 0.63–0.93 (41%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
- Manson – Girard16:24
xG 0.48–0.79 (38%)attempts 10–16goals 2–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Cirelli – Hagel5:59
xG 0.96–0.02 (98%)attempts 14–1goals 2–0
- Guentzel – Goncalves – Geekie2:37
xG 0.23–0.02 (90%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Kucherov – Guentzel – Point9:23
xG 0.62–0.44 (58%)attempts 8–10goals 0–2
- Glendening – Girgensons – Eyssimont9:46
xG 0.12–0.25 (33%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRaddysh – Lilleberg6:09
xG 0.59–0.02 (97%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Hedman – Moser10:44
xG 0.61–0.08 (89%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- McDonagh – Cernak11:53
xG 0.73–0.26 (74%)attempts 14–6goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).