Mon, Nov 25, 2024·Prudential Center, Newark
Nashville Predators 2, New Jersey Devils 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 19 | 010 | 13 | 222 |
| NJD | 111 | 319 | 116 | 546 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:08NSHFilip ForsbergUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 11:29NJDErik HaulaAssists: Johnathan Kovacevic, Dawson Mercer · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 3:52NJDNico HischierAssists: Timo Meier, Luke Hughes · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 10:01NJDNico HischierPPGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 16:57NJDNico HischierAssists: Stefan Noesen · Snap, 0.18 xG1–4
- P3 7:39NSHZachary L'HeureuxAssists: Roman Josi · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–4
- P3 17:25NJDJustin DowlingENAssists: Johnathan Kovacevic, Brenden Dillon · Wrist, 0.57 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:53NSHAlexandre Carrier: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:25NJDErik Haula: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:03NJDTimo Meier: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:23NSHTommy Novak: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 12:08NJDLuke Hughes: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:22NJDErik Haula: Holding2 min
- P3 12:17NJDTimo Meier: Cross checking5 min
- P3 12:17NJDTimo Meier: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestMarchessault – Jankowski – Novak5:31
xG 0.16–0.05 (77%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Parssinen – Svechkov3:05
xG 0.00–0.30 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Sissons – Smith – L'Heureux7:04
xG 0.15–0.70 (18%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg8:39
xG 0.29–0.84 (26%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Carrier – Del Gaizo2:35
xG 0.09–0.15 (38%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Schenn – Josi2:05
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Josi – Lauzon5:53
xG 0.01–0.11 (11%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestNoesen – Meier – Hischier9:36
xG 1.19–0.28 (81%)attempts 17–7goals 2–1
- Palat – Bratt – Hughes7:59
xG 0.59–0.11 (84%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Haula – Cotter – Mercer8:15
xG 0.55–0.10 (84%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Tatar – Dowling – Bowers7:22
xG 0.21–0.24 (47%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSiegenthaler – Kovacevic13:33
xG 1.24–0.29 (81%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Pesce – Hughes12:29
xG 0.97–0.10 (91%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Dillon – Hamilton13:30
xG 0.73–0.29 (72%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).