Mon, Nov 25, 2024·Madison Square Garden, New York
St. Louis Blues 5, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 115 | 117 | 312 | 544 |
| NYR | 114 | 18 | 07 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:47NYRWill CuylleAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Zac Jones · Deflected, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 11:45STLJordan KyrouAssists: Brayden Schenn · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 4:30STLZachary BolducAssists: Radek Faksa, Dylan Holloway · Snap, 0.35 xG2–1
- P2 7:20NYRWill CuylleAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Brett Berard · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 1:12STLBrayden SchennGWGAssists: Scott Perunovich · Snap, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 8:25STLZachary BolducAssists: Colton Parayko, Dylan Holloway · Snap, 0.20 xG4–2
- P3 17:15STLPavel BuchnevichENAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.81 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:29STLOskar Sundqvist: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:18STLZachary Bolduc: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:01NYRAdam Edstrom: Boarding2 min
- P2 7:50STLZachary Bolduc: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:18NYRSam Carrick: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00STLJake Neighbours: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 0:00NYRWill Cuylle: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 3:44NYRMatt Rempe: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSundqvist – Holloway – Bolduc7:37
xG 0.87–0.13 (87%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Buchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours7:56
xG 0.91–0.31 (75%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Faksa – Walker – Toropchenko7:40
xG 0.26–0.13 (67%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Schenn – Saad – Kyrou7:55
xG 0.39–0.42 (48%)attempts 6–11goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Parayko16:52
xG 1.23–0.40 (75%)attempts 18–17goals 2–0
- Joseph – Kessel7:11
xG 0.62–0.21 (75%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Faulk – Joseph4:02
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Smith – Kakko – Edstrom10:08
xG 0.37–0.53 (41%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Carrick – Vesey – Rempe7:04
xG 0.01–0.36 (2%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Berard – Cuylle7:57
xG 0.55–1.04 (35%)attempts 7–14goals 1–2
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière12:52
xG 0.21–1.07 (16%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Fox – Miller12:59
xG 0.69–0.75 (48%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Jones – Schneider12:44
xG 0.18–0.57 (24%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Trouba – Lindgren12:30
xG 0.31–1.42 (18%)attempts 7–22goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).