Mon, Nov 25, 2024·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Vegas Golden Knights 5, Philadelphia Flyers 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 05 | 319 | 16 | 00 | 1 | 530 |
| PHI | 27 | 27 | 014 | 08 | 0 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:51PHIMorgan FrostAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Owen Tippett · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 12:07PHISean CouturierAssists: Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 0:28PHIEmil AndraeAssists: Garnet Hathaway, Scott Laughton · Snap, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 7:42VGKJack EichelAssists: Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 11:32VGKIvan BarbashevAssists: Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 13:18PHIMatvei MichkovAssists: Morgan Frost · Snap, 0.22 xG2–4
- P2 18:10VGKPavel DorofeyevPPAssists: Shea Theodore, Tomas Hertl · Slap, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 11:55VGKTanner PearsonAssists: Noah Hanifin, Nicolas Hague · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. PHI Travis Konecny stopped
- 2. VGK Pavel Dorofeyev stopped
- 3. PHI Matvei Michkov stopped
- 4. VGK Jack Eichel scored
- 5. PHI Owen Tippett stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 4:57VGKShea Theodore: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:05PHISean Couturier: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:04VGKTomas Hertl: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:38VGKNicolas Roy: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Poehling won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPearson – Howden – Dorofeyev11:23
xG 0.71–0.19 (79%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Barbashev – Eichel – Dorofeyev2:29
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Barbashev – Eichel – Burke11:22
xG 0.33–0.33 (50%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Morelli – Schwindt – Holtz5:47
xG 0.02–0.14 (11%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHagg – Hague4:11
xG 0.22–0.10 (68%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Hagg – Korczak7:14
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Hague11:59
xG 0.76–0.94 (45%)attempts 17–14goals 1–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Konecny – Farabee14:42
xG 1.19–0.51 (70%)attempts 22–17goals 1–0
- Tippett – Frost – Michkov10:18
xG 0.81–0.29 (73%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- Laughton – Hathaway – Poehling9:46
xG 0.51–0.11 (82%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Cates – Brink – Foerster9:41
xG 0.24–0.53 (32%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Andrae15:32
xG 1.21–0.18 (87%)attempts 17–6goals 4–1
- Sanheim – York19:54
xG 1.14–0.62 (65%)attempts 22–23goals 0–0
- Seeler – Grans12:50
xG 0.34–0.72 (32%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).