Mon, Nov 25, 2024·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Winnipeg Jets 4, Minnesota Wild 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 17 | 113 | 212 | 432 |
| MIN | 122 | 017 | 05 | 144 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:37MINJake MiddletonAssists: Marcus Johansson, Brock Faber · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 10:03WPGAlex IafalloAssists: Rasmus Kupari · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 12:05WPGNino NiederreiterGWGAssists: Neal Pionk, Vladislav Namestnikov · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 13:20WPGAlex IafalloPPAssists: Neal Pionk, Cole Perfetti · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 18:57WPGAdam LowryENAssists: Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele · Backhand, 0.65 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 15:32WPGGabriel Vilardi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 19:00MINJake Middleton: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:00WPGMark Scheifele: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:00MINJake Middleton: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:32WPGHaydn Fleury: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:49MINRyan Hartman: Interference2 min
- P3 12:29MINMarcus Foligno: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Namestnikov won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Vilardi12:00
xG 0.55–0.31 (64%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti7:45
xG 0.46–0.29 (61%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton9:01
xG 0.29–0.31 (49%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Lowry – Appleton – Barron2:54
xG 0.03–0.09 (27%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Heinola11:28
xG 0.53–0.11 (83%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey14:31
xG 0.70–0.49 (59%)attempts 18–15goals 0–0
- Fleury – Pionk13:47
xG 0.32–0.29 (52%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Hartman – Rossi8:24
xG 0.59–0.28 (68%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Shore – Jones – Lauko3:30
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Foligno – Gaudreau – Trenin7:31
xG 0.10–0.27 (28%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy13:51
xG 0.31–0.53 (37%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Brodin12:54
xG 0.56–0.41 (57%)attempts 14–18goals 0–1
- Spurgeon – Chisholm2:01
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Middleton – Faber16:09
xG 0.56–0.72 (44%)attempts 22–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).