Tue, Nov 26, 2024·Centre Bell, Montreal
Utah Hockey Club 3, Montréal Canadiens 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 014 | 18 | 16 | 11 | 329 |
| MTL | 05 | 13 | 15 | 00 | 213 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:23UTADylan GuentherAssists: Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 8:05MTLJayden StrubleAssists: Cole Caufield, David Savard · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 0:46MTLAlex NewhookAssists: Christian Dvorak, Arber Xhekaj · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 4:17UTAJack McBainAssists: Logan Cooley, Dylan Guenther · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
- OT 4:33UTAMikhail SergachevGWGAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Barrett Hayton · Snap, 0.38 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:42UTANick Bjugstad: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:20MTLArber Xhekaj: Interference2 min
- P1 15:02MTLJake Evans: Interference2 min
- P1 17:32MTLJoshua Roy: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 4:18MTLAlex Newhook: Holding2 min
- P2 14:37UTARobert Bortuzzo: Kneeing2 min
- P2 0:00MTLDavid Savard: Misconduct10 min
- P3 9:18UTAMaveric Lamoureux: Holding2 min
- P3 13:53MTLDavid Savard: Elbowing2 min
- P3 13:53UTAMikhail Sergachev: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Keller – Hayton9:33
xG 1.05–0.42 (71%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Stenlund – Carcone8:35
xG 0.39–0.14 (74%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli5:16
xG 0.48–0.41 (54%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- McBain – Guenther – Cooley9:03
xG 0.27–0.79 (25%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Kesselring4:31
xG 0.52–0.15 (78%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Maatta – Kesselring4:10
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Cole – Lamoureux10:17
xG 0.28–0.33 (45%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Anderson – Dvorak7:50
xG 0.42–0.35 (55%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Newhook11:17
xG 0.53–0.58 (48%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Gallagher – Dach – Slafkovský2:06
xG 0.07–0.24 (23%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Evans – Heineman – Roy8:11
xG 0.47–0.67 (41%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStruble – Barron6:39
xG 0.92–0.12 (88%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Savard – Struble2:15
xG 0.38–0.12 (76%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Barron – Xhekaj2:57
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).