Wed, Nov 27, 2024·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
New York Rangers 3, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 111 | 25 | 06 | 322 |
| CAR | 113 | 19 | 29 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:53CARJack DruryAssists: Martin Necas, Dmitry Orlov · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 17:38NYRJonny BrodzinskiAssists: Jimmy Vesey, Ryan Lindgren · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 1:12CARSeth JarvisPPAssists: Martin Necas, Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.25 xG1–2
- P2 9:13NYRBrett BerardAssists: Will Cuylle, Zac Jones · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 18:49NYRAdam EdstromAssists: Reilly Smith, Adam Fox · Snap, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 9:54CARJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Eric Robinson, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 12:01CARJackson BlakePPGWGAssists: Jack Drury, Jack Roslovic · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:56NYRZac Jones: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:13CARJack Drury: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:12NYRWill Cuylle: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 15:33NYRK'Andre Miller: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:34CARWilliam Carrier: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:30NYRVincent Trocheck: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Kakko – Edstrom6:53
xG 0.37–0.19 (66%)attempts 5–9goals 1–1
- Zibanejad – Berard – Cuylle11:36
xG 0.24–0.27 (47%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Carrick – Vesey – Brodzinski5:47
xG 0.20–0.30 (40%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière13:12
xG 0.49–0.81 (38%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Schneider10:09
xG 0.60–0.37 (62%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Fox – Miller2:39
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Fox – Lindgren13:06
xG 0.47–0.46 (51%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestAho – Roslovic – Jarvis10:03
xG 0.50–0.15 (76%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Staal – Martinook – Carrier10:45
xG 0.52–0.31 (62%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Robinson – Kotkaniemi – Blake6:09
xG 0.41–0.22 (64%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Aho – Roslovic – Svechnikov2:15
xG 0.04–0.20 (18%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Chatfield13:04
xG 0.62–0.24 (72%)attempts 22–6goals 1–2
- Burns – Slavin15:56
xG 0.90–0.65 (58%)attempts 18–15goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Walker12:37
xG 0.31–0.41 (43%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).