Wed, Nov 27, 2024·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Vancouver Canucks 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 110 | 16 | 213 | 429 |
| PIT | 410 | 18 | 05 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:59PITBlake LizotteAssists: Ryan Shea, Drew O'Connor · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 8:52VANAatu RätyAssists: Max Sasson · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 12:53PITRickard RakellAssists: Bryan Rust, Marcus Pettersson · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
- P1 15:14PITKevin HayesPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–3
- P1 17:41PITBryan RustAssists: Sidney Crosby, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–4
- P2 3:40PITBryan RustGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–5
- P2 13:40VANPius SuterAssists: Quinn Hughes, Filip Hronek · Slap, 0.04 xG2–5
- P3 0:40VANQuinn HughesAssists: Elias Pettersson · Snap, 0.15 xG3–5
- P3 18:14VANElias PetterssonAssists: Conor Garland, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:21VANTyler Myers: Interference2 min
- P1 13:34VANAatu Räty: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:03PITJack St. Ivany: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:59VANConor Garland: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:16VANAatu Räty: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pettersson won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Hoglander – Räty – Sasson6:06
xG 0.10–0.07 (59%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
- DeBrusk – Pettersson – Sherwood9:41
xG 0.20–0.24 (46%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Joshua – Garland – Suter9:56
xG 0.18–0.32 (36%)attempts 11–5goals 1–2
- Blueger – Heinen – Boeser8:05
xG 0.16–0.92 (15%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHronek – Hughes17:40
xG 0.36–0.16 (69%)attempts 15–10goals 2–1
- Myers – Hughes2:11
xG 0.25–0.16 (62%)attempts 3–1goals 1–1
- Soucy – Hughes2:27
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Rakell12:10
xG 1.12–0.16 (87%)attempts 15–5goals 3–0
- Beauvillier – Lizotte – O'Connor9:39
xG 0.35–0.10 (78%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Hayes – Nieto – Acciari6:56
xG 0.06–0.28 (17%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Malkin – Bunting – Tomasino12:21
xG 0.10–0.46 (17%)attempts 4–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Pettersson12:07
xG 1.10–0.26 (81%)attempts 12–12goals 2–2
- Shea – St. Ivany12:17
xG 0.41–0.12 (77%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Pettersson – St. Ivany2:27
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).