Wed, Nov 27, 2024·United Center, Chicago
Dallas Stars 2, Chicago Blackhawks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 09 | 111 | 17 | 227 |
| CHI | 210 | 410 | 06 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:17CHITaylor HallAssists: Philipp Kurashev, Alec Martinez · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 5:43CHITaylor HallAssists: Ryan Donato · Snap, 0.28 xG0–2
- P2 0:41CHIConnor BedardPPGWGAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi · Snap, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 3:06CHITeuvo TeravainenAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, TJ Brodie · Snap, 0.10 xG0–4
- P2 3:41DALColin BlackwellAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Mavrik Bourque · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–4
- P2 8:42CHITaylor HallAssists: Craig Smith, Patrick Maroon · Snap, 0.17 xG1–5
- P2 13:18CHILouis CrevierAssists: Ilya Mikheyev · Snap, 0.15 xG1–6
- P3 13:43DALMatt DuchenePPAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Jason Robertson · Backhand, 0.24 xG2–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:07CHITeuvo Teravainen: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:28DALWyatt Johnston: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:39DALBrendan Smith: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:42CHINick Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:17CHIJason Dickinson: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:01CHITaylor Hall: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnston won the faceoff against Bedard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRobertson – Stankoven – Johnston7:32
xG 0.49–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Robertson – Johnston3:54
xG 0.27–0.16 (63%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Benn – Dadonov – Steel2:54
xG 0.08–0.04 (68%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Duchene – Seguin – Marchment11:30
xG 0.40–0.43 (48%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Heiskanen10:02
xG 0.94–0.10 (91%)attempts 14–4goals 1–1
- Dumba – Lindell2:16
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Heiskanen – Harley7:24
xG 0.23–0.16 (59%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Dickinson – Mikheyev10:00
xG 0.49–0.27 (64%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Maroon – Smith – Reichel9:30
xG 0.34–0.34 (50%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Hall – Kurashev – Bedard10:04
xG 0.24–0.35 (41%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Teravainen – Bertuzzi – Donato9:26
xG 0.35–0.72 (33%)attempts 7–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Murphy – Vlasic13:56
xG 0.41–0.44 (48%)attempts 10–15goals 1–1
- Brodie – Crevier14:16
xG 0.37–0.45 (45%)attempts 10–22goals 1–0
- Martinez – Kaiser12:40
xG 0.71–0.87 (45%)attempts 9–15goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).