Wed, Nov 27, 2024·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Anaheim Ducks 5, Seattle Kraken 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 213 | 28 | 112 | 533 |
| SEA | 115 | 110 | 019 | 244 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:23ANAFrank VatranoAssists: Troy Terry · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 12:43ANABrett LeasonAssists: Cutter Gauthier, Isac Lundeström · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P1 16:34SEAEeli TolvanenAssists: Yanni Gourde, Brandon Tanev · Snap, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 8:58SEAOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Shane Wright · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 10:02ANAAlex KillornGWGAssists: Trevor Zegras · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P2 19:23ANACutter GauthierPPAssists: Pavel Mintyukov · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 13:55ANATrevor ZegrasAssists: Alex Killorn, Mason McTavish · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 13:16ANARoss Johnston: Interference2 min
- P2 1:12ANABrett Leason: Holding2 min
- P2 17:31SEAMatty Beniers: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:17SEAJamie Oleksiak: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:36ANARadko Gudas: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 15:00ANAJansen Harkins: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:00SEATye Kartye: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:00ANARoss Johnston: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:00ANARoss Johnston: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:00ANARoss Johnston: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beniers won the faceoff against McTavish
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestJohnston – Harkins – Colangelo8:50
xG 0.37–0.23 (62%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Strome – Vatrano – Terry10:18
xG 0.55–0.65 (46%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Lundeström – Leason – Gauthier8:51
xG 0.14–0.39 (26%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Killorn – Zegras – McTavish9:22
xG 0.45–0.89 (34%)attempts 14–13goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestLaCombe – Zellweger11:24
xG 0.86–0.34 (72%)attempts 20–9goals 1–1
- Gudas – Mintyukov15:23
xG 0.47–0.77 (38%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Dumoulin – Helleson14:29
xG 0.56–1.12 (33%)attempts 14–21goals 1–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestBurakovsky – McCann – Beniers10:00
xG 0.73–0.19 (80%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen – Wright7:06
xG 0.47–0.07 (87%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Schwartz – Stephenson – Sprong4:48
xG 0.41–0.29 (58%)attempts 4–6goals 0–2
- Schwartz – Stephenson – Bjorkstrand3:00
xG 0.09–0.13 (41%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Evans14:02
xG 0.98–0.70 (58%)attempts 20–16goals 1–1
- Borgen – Mahura9:33
xG 0.31–0.24 (56%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
- Oleksiak – Montour14:29
xG 0.87–0.88 (50%)attempts 15–19goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).