Wed, Nov 27, 2024·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Ottawa Senators 4, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 24 | 16 | 11 | 411 |
| SJS | 012 | 112 | 215 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:35OTTAdam GaudetteAssists: Tim Stützle, Brady Tkachuk · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 13:56OTTJosh NorrisPPAssists: Drake Batherson, Tim Stützle · Snap, 0.25 xG2–0
- P2 9:19SJSMario FerraroAssists: Will Smith, Klim Kostin · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 15:22OTTTyler KlevenAssists: Claude Giroux · Slap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 4:48SJSMacklin CelebriniAssists: William Eklund, Jake Walman · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 12:32SJSWill SmithPPAssists: Fabian Zetterlund, Timothy Liljegren · Tip-in, 0.22 xG3–3
- P3 15:48OTTAdam GaudetteGWGAssists: Tim Stützle, Brady Tkachuk · Tip-in, 0.07 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:50OTTRidly Greig: Interference2 min
- P1 13:14SJSKlim Kostin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:36SJSMario Ferraro: Holding2 min
- P3 10:40OTTShane Pinto: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Celebrini won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGaudette – Tkachuk – Stützle10:11
xG 0.67–0.41 (62%)attempts 16–5goals 2–0
- Amadio – Tkachuk – Stützle2:44
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Amadio – Gregor – Ostapchuk6:49
xG 0.13–0.64 (16%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
- Reinhardt – Pinto – Greig10:19
xG 0.14–0.69 (17%)attempts 4–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Jensen – Chabot2:06
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Chabot – Bernard-Docker14:31
xG 0.53–0.78 (40%)attempts 12–16goals 2–1
- Jensen – Kleven15:18
xG 0.26–0.81 (24%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestZetterlund – Eklund – Celebrini16:42
xG 1.08–0.31 (78%)attempts 20–10goals 1–1
- Toffoli – Wennberg – Kunin11:59
xG 0.71–0.27 (73%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Kostin – Sturm – Smith4:39
xG 0.26–0.13 (67%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Grundstrom – Kostin – Dellandrea4:11
xG 0.11–0.18 (38%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFerraro – Liljegren17:13
xG 1.23–0.27 (82%)attempts 26–12goals 0–0
- Ceci – Walman14:36
xG 0.99–0.55 (64%)attempts 16–10goals 1–1
- Rutta – Thrun11:26
xG 0.29–0.06 (83%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).