Fri, Nov 29, 2024·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 15 | 110 | 08 | 223 |
| MIN | 08 | 36 | 015 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:23CHIRyan DonatoAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 5:43CHIRyan DonatoPPAssists: Alex Vlasic, Connor Bedard · Slap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 10:22MINMarco RossiAssists: Marcus Johansson, Kirill Kaprizov · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 10:39MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 17:33MINJared SpurgeonGWGAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P2 4:52MINZach Bogosian: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 12:17MINRyan Hartman: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:27MINMarcus Johansson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 8:38CHIRyan Donato: Interference2 min
- P3 15:50CHIConnor Murphy: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Bedard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Smith – Reichel7:48
xG 0.36–0.10 (78%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Foligno – Dickinson – Mikheyev8:00
xG 0.26–0.05 (83%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Bertuzzi – Donato9:41
xG 0.35–0.20 (64%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Hall – Kurashev – Bedard12:26
xG 0.36–0.91 (28%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Kaiser14:47
xG 0.45–0.36 (56%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
- Murphy – Kaiser2:21
xG 0.06–0.19 (23%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Murphy – Vlasic14:59
xG 0.36–0.58 (38%)attempts 8–18goals 0–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestEriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy9:38
xG 0.43–0.23 (65%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Johansson – Kaprizov – Rossi5:39
xG 0.35–0.16 (68%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Shore – Jones – Khusnutdinov4:22
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Foligno – Eriksson Ek – Boldy2:38
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Chisholm13:47
xG 0.67–0.13 (84%)attempts 24–4goals 3–0
- Middleton – Faber16:24
xG 0.51–0.54 (49%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Bogosian – Merrill12:12
xG 0.26–0.64 (29%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).