Fri, Nov 29, 2024·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Florida Panthers 6, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 37 | 010 | 313 | 630 |
| CAR | 110 | 212 | 09 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:26FLAJesper BoqvistAssists: Anton Lundell · Backhand, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 5:42CARSeth JarvisPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Shayne Gostisbehere · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 9:05FLASam ReinhartAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P1 11:21FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 6:24CARSean WalkerAssists: Jack Roslovic, Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 17:18CAREric RobinsonAssists: Jalen Chatfield, Jackson Blake · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 4:58FLAA.J. GreerGWGAssists: Uvis Balinskis · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 9:08FLAAnton LundellSHAssists: Eetu Luostarinen, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–3
- P3 19:53FLASam BennettENAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Eetu Luostarinen · Wrist, 0.70 xG6–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:02FLAUvis Balinskis: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:19FLADmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:24CARAndrei Svechnikov: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:51FLACarter Verhaeghe: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:17FLAAaron Ekblad: Interference2 min
- P2 8:30CARSebastian Aho: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:18FLAJesper Boqvist: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:34CARSebastian Aho: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Drury
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk10:58
xG 0.42–0.24 (64%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Boqvist – Luostarinen – Lundell8:02
xG 0.15–0.16 (49%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Nosek – Greer – Samoskevich6:23
xG 0.01–0.35 (2%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
- Barkov – Reinhart – Rodrigues11:15
xG 0.22–0.75 (23%)attempts 11–19goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling18:31
xG 0.63–0.50 (56%)attempts 15–18goals 1–0
- Schmidt – Mikkola11:53
xG 0.37–0.39 (49%)attempts 16–10goals 2–2
- Kulikov – Balinskis10:08
xG 0.08–0.64 (11%)attempts 4–17goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRobinson – Kotkaniemi – Blake6:00
xG 0.49–0.23 (68%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
- Staal – Martinook – Carrier9:15
xG 0.32–0.06 (84%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Necas – Svechnikov – Drury9:34
xG 0.29–0.28 (51%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Aho – Roslovic – Jarvis7:20
xG 0.23–0.34 (41%)attempts 8–8goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Walker12:23
xG 0.80–0.17 (83%)attempts 24–6goals 1–1
- Burns – Slavin13:56
xG 0.53–0.30 (64%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
- Orlov – Chatfield16:08
xG 0.23–0.67 (26%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).