Fri, Nov 29, 2024·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Calgary Flames 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 010 | 18 | 111 | 229 |
| CBJ | 216 | 19 | 29 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:56CBJAdam FantilliPPAssists: Ivan Provorov · Tip-in, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 16:42CBJKent JohnsonAssists: Cole Sillinger · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 4:43CBJZach WerenskiGWGAssists: Kirill Marchenko, Dmitri Voronkov · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–3
- P2 14:59CGYBlake ColemanAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Kevin Bahl · Snap, 0.29 xG1–3
- P3 4:46CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Kirill Marchenko, Dante Fabbro · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 11:00CGYNazem KadriPPAssists: Martin Pospisil, Dustin Wolf · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 18:20CBJKirill MarchenkoENAssists: Dmitri Voronkov, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.79 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:56CGYNazem Kadri: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 3:46CBJJake Christiansen: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:46CGYMartin Pospisil: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:54CBJMathieu Olivier: Boarding2 min
- P2 11:54CGYBrayden Pachal: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:54CGYMartin Pospisil: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:54CBJMathieu Olivier: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:37CGYRyan Lomberg: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:37CBJMathieu Olivier: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:37CBJElvis Merzlikins: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:28CBJKent Johnson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danforth won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Coleman – Lomberg – Rooney2:34
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Coleman – Huberdeau – Zary11:29
xG 0.77–0.75 (51%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Backlund – Sharangovich – Coronato13:04
xG 0.33–0.33 (50%)attempts 21–7goals 0–0
- Kadri – Pospisil – Kuzmenko8:32
xG 0.19–0.26 (43%)attempts 5–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Bahl14:34
xG 0.71–0.61 (54%)attempts 18–15goals 1–0
- Weegar – Andersson2:19
xG 0.07–0.01 (86%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Weegar – Miromanov16:50
xG 0.91–0.85 (52%)attempts 16–15goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMonahan – Marchenko – Voronkov12:20
xG 0.96–0.29 (77%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Kuraly – Labanc7:42
xG 0.57–0.19 (75%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Labanc – Danforth – Aston-Reese2:12
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Olivier – Danforth – Aston-Reese9:41
xG 0.20–0.24 (45%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Fabbro19:12
xG 1.13–0.41 (73%)attempts 22–14goals 2–0
- Severson – Provorov18:11
xG 0.31–0.45 (40%)attempts 10–21goals 0–0
- Harris – Christiansen6:33
xG 0.04–0.53 (7%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).