Fri, Nov 29, 2024·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Colorado Avalanche 3, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 114 | 07 | 211 | 332 |
| DAL | 28 | 211 | 15 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:36DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Mason Marchment, Matt Duchene · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 13:56COLValeri NichushkinPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar · Backhand, 0.26 xG1–1
- P1 14:28DALMason MarchmentAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Tyler Seguin · Snap, 0.28 xG1–2
- P2 7:07DALJamie BennAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Sam Steel · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–3
- P2 18:42DALRoope HintzPPGWGAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.26 xG1–4
- P3 1:02COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 8:03COLMikko RantanenAssists: Cale Makar · Snap, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 17:17DALMason MarchmentENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.49 xG3–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:49COLNikolai Kovalenko: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:07DALWyatt Johnston: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:17COLIvan Ivan: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 17:53DALColin Blackwell: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 11:36COLIvan Ivan: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:57DALJamie Benn: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:04DALAlexander Petrovic: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:09COLDevon Toews: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:53DALJamie Benn: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Kelly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestO'Connor – Kiviranta – Ivan4:19
xG 0.43–0.14 (75%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen2:11
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen2:38
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Nichushkin8:16
xG 0.45–0.39 (54%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar11:42
xG 1.24–0.08 (94%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Girard – Malinski5:11
xG 0.32–0.11 (75%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- de Haan – Malinski5:48
xG 0.17–0.11 (59%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Dadonov – Steel10:26
xG 0.50–0.14 (78%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Blackwell – Bäck – Bourque6:37
xG 0.02–0.02 (49%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Duchene – Seguin – Marchment10:55
xG 0.58–0.68 (46%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Hintz – Robertson – Johnston10:02
xG 0.30–0.90 (25%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Heiskanen – Harley3:16
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Petrovic – Heiskanen2:16
xG 0.04–0.07 (38%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Lindell – Harley2:55
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).