Sat, Nov 30, 2024·Madison Square Garden, New York
Montréal Canadiens 3, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 17 | 014 | 27 | 328 |
| NYR | 210 | 112 | 16 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:02NYRArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Adam Fox, Mika Zibanejad · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 11:47MTLMike MathesonAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Juraj Slafkovský · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 19:56NYRVincent TrocheckAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Ryan Lindgren · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 17:03NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 4:16MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 14:07MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Lane Hutson, Cole Caufield · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–3
- P3 19:36NYRKaapo KakkoPPGWGAssists: Will Cuylle, Zac Jones · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
Penalties (16)
- P1 1:58NYRJacob Trouba: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:58MTLJosh Anderson: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:22MTLEmil Heineman: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 8:22MTLMike Matheson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 12:52NYRChris Kreider: Holding2 min
- P1 16:31NYRVincent Trocheck: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:26NYRSam Carrick: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 16:14MTLJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:34MTLDavid Savard: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:34MTLArber Xhekaj: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:34NYRMika Zibanejad: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:34NYRRyan Lindgren: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:34NYRJonathan Quick: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:34MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:34MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:20MTLKirby Dach: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Chytil won the faceoff against Newhook
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Newhook12:07
xG 1.38–0.31 (82%)attempts 24–7goals 2–1
- Anderson – Evans – Roy2:02
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Anderson – Dach – Roy5:14
xG 0.36–0.19 (65%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Armia – Evans – Heineman8:22
xG 0.18–0.17 (52%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Hutson13:57
xG 1.58–0.58 (73%)attempts 26–14goals 2–0
- Matheson – Guhle2:12
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Savard – Xhekaj12:01
xG 0.30–0.34 (47%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Lafrenière – Berard8:24
xG 0.45–0.37 (55%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Panarin – Chytil – Cuylle8:57
xG 0.68–0.63 (52%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Carrick – Vesey – Edstrom7:17
xG 0.09–0.28 (24%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Kakko8:27
xG 0.09–0.81 (10%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren14:17
xG 0.74–0.36 (67%)attempts 20–8goals 1–0
- Jones – Schneider3:01
xG 0.18–0.23 (44%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Trouba – Jones9:21
xG 0.23–0.54 (30%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).