Sat, Nov 30, 2024·Prudential Center, Newark
Washington Capitals 6, New Jersey Devils 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 117 | 310 | 25 | 632 |
| NJD | 15 | 18 | 314 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:19WSHAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Hendrix Lapierre, John Carlson · Snap, 0.31 xG1–0
- P1 10:54NJDNico HischierAssists: Luke Hughes, Timo Meier · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 2:38NJDJustin DowlingAssists: Brett Pesce · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 9:49WSHConnor McMichaelPPAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, John Carlson · Snap, 0.31 xG2–2
- P2 10:56WSHJakob ChychrunPPAssists: Lars Eller, Rasmus Sandin · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 19:47WSHRasmus SandinPPAssists: Ivan Miroshnichenko · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–2
- P3 2:03NJDStefan NoesenPPAssists: Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–3
- P3 4:15NJDJesper BrattAssists: Jack Hughes, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–4
- P3 13:54WSHTaylor RaddyshAssists: Martin Fehérváry, John Carlson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG5–4
- P3 14:04WSHPierre-Luc DuboisGWGAssists: Aliaksei Protas, Taylor Raddysh · Snap, 0.13 xG6–4
- P3 16:45NJDStefan NoesenPPAssists: Timo Meier, Jack Hughes · Snap, 0.32 xG6–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 11:33WSHPierre-Luc Dubois: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:33NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:22NJDPaul Cotter: Interference2 min
- P1 17:55WSHNic Dowd: Holding2 min
- P1 18:02NJDJesper Bratt: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:04NJDPaul Cotter: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P2 8:04WSHJakob Chychrun: Interference2 min
- P2 8:49NJDDawson Mercer: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 17:48NJDLuke Hughes: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 0:52WSHTom Wilson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 15:10WSHLars Eller: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Duhaime – Miroshnichenko5:39
xG 0.22–0.05 (83%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Raddysh – Dubois – Protas8:30
xG 0.45–0.41 (53%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Wilson – Strome – McMichael8:38
xG 0.41–0.51 (44%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Eller – Mangiapane – Lapierre7:07
xG 0.02–0.27 (9%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Sandin12:14
xG 1.18–0.43 (73%)attempts 13–15goals 2–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry11:23
xG 0.55–0.61 (47%)attempts 17–7goals 1–2
- van Riemsdyk – Chychrun12:30
xG 0.34–0.44 (43%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Bratt – Hughes10:15
xG 0.65–0.19 (78%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Dowling – MacDermid – Bowers2:15
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 1–0
- Haula – Cotter – Mercer8:48
xG 0.09–0.23 (28%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
- Noesen – Meier – Hischier10:04
xG 0.62–1.12 (36%)attempts 8–14goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Siegenthaler – Kovacevic11:49
xG 0.19–0.42 (31%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
- Pesce – Hughes13:21
xG 0.69–0.96 (42%)attempts 11–13goals 2–2
- Dillon – Hamilton11:43
xG 0.49–0.91 (35%)attempts 10–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).