Sat, Nov 30, 2024·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Calgary Flames 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 010 | 010 | 212 | 232 |
| PIT | 113 | 217 | 313 | 643 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:14PITAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Blake Lizotte, Michael Bunting · Backhand, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 2:40PITMichael BuntingPPAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 9:02PITPhilip TomasinoPPGWGAssists: Kris Letang, Michael Bunting · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–3
- P3 5:25PITRickard RakellAssists: Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust · Backhand, 0.19 xG0–4
- P3 7:59PITKris LetangPPAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Kevin Hayes · Slap, 0.04 xG0–5
- P3 14:27CGYJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Nazem Kadri, Martin Pospisil · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–5
- P3 15:05CGYNazem KadriAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Kevin Bahl · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–5
- P3 18:23PITBlake LizotteAssists: Drew O'Connor · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:16PITRyan Shea: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:33CGYConnor Zary: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 2:57PITBlake Lizotte: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:04CGYBrayden Pachal: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 15:53CGYRasmus Andersson: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:19PITSidney Crosby: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:18CGYKevin Rooney: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:50CGYMartin Pospisil: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:23CGYRasmus Andersson: Abuse of officials10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Sharangovich – Coronato11:27
xG 0.51–0.10 (83%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Kadri – Pospisil – Kuzmenko8:10
xG 0.16–0.22 (42%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Pospisil2:48
xG 0.50–0.62 (45%)attempts 8–3goals 2–0
- Lomberg – Rooney – Klapka6:48
xG 0.13–0.64 (17%)attempts 4–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Miromanov12:51
xG 0.80–0.71 (53%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
- Bean – Pachal12:54
xG 0.37–0.84 (31%)attempts 19–19goals 0–2
- Andersson – Bahl13:57
xG 0.50–0.99 (34%)attempts 23–15goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Rakell11:26
xG 1.40–0.55 (72%)attempts 19–19goals 0–0
- Bunting – Beauvillier – Lizotte6:33
xG 0.32–0.04 (89%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Malkin – Tomasino – O'Connor9:14
xG 0.24–0.48 (34%)attempts 9–18goals 0–1
- Hayes – Nieto – Acciari7:39
xG 0.19–0.44 (30%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestShea – Pickering10:59
xG 0.61–0.14 (82%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Karlsson – Pettersson15:11
xG 0.82–0.61 (57%)attempts 21–21goals 1–1
- Letang – Grzelcyk13:50
xG 1.02–0.84 (55%)attempts 13–25goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).