Sat, Nov 30, 2024·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Philadelphia Flyers 3, St. Louis Blues 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 110 | 014 | 16 | 11 | 331 |
| STL | 06 | 09 | 212 | 00 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:15PHIOwen TippettAssists: Matvei Michkov, Morgan Frost · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P3 11:11STLDylan HollowayAssists: Brayden Schenn, Matthew Kessel · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 12:02PHITyson FoersterAssists: Bobby Brink, Noah Cates · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–1
- P3 19:40STLJake NeighboursPPAssists: Justin Faulk, Jordan Kyrou · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–2
- OT 0:28PHIMatvei MichkovGWGAssists: Travis Konecny · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P2 0:38PHIRyan Poehling: Interference2 min
- P2 4:54STLAlexey Toropchenko: Interference2 min
- P2 12:31STLRadek Faksa: Holding2 min
- P3 1:01PHICam York: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:50PHITravis Konecny: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Poehling
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Konecny – Farabee13:23
xG 0.91–0.46 (66%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Cates – Brink – Foerster8:32
xG 0.59–0.25 (70%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Laughton – Hathaway – Poehling9:22
xG 0.37–0.23 (62%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Tippett – Frost – Michkov9:11
xG 0.35–0.22 (62%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – York15:33
xG 1.27–0.35 (79%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
- Seeler – Zamula12:10
xG 0.96–0.24 (80%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Ristolainen – Andrae14:50
xG 0.29–0.61 (32%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Holloway – Neighbours3:39
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Sundqvist – Texier – Bolduc2:08
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Schenn – Saad – Kyrou6:20
xG 0.27–0.27 (50%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Saad – Kyrou – Thomas4:09
xG 0.22–0.30 (43%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Suter – Parayko16:46
xG 0.49–0.90 (35%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
- Joseph – Kessel8:55
xG 0.16–0.61 (21%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Faulk – Broberg16:22
xG 0.35–1.22 (22%)attempts 11–23goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).