Sat, Nov 30, 2024·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Ottawa Senators 2, Los Angeles Kings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 15 | 110 | 07 | 222 |
| LAK | 19 | 19 | 39 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:57LAKAlex LaferriereAssists: Phillip Danault, Jordan Spence · Deflected, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 19:14OTTTim StützleAssists: Drake Batherson, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 6:11OTTAdam GaudetteAssists: Thomas Chabot, Jacob Bernard-Docker · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 7:26LAKKevin FialaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 1:37LAKAnze KopitarGWGAssists: Trevor Moore, Vladislav Gavrikov · Bat, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 16:14LAKAdrian KempePPAssists: Kevin Fiala, Quinton Byfield · Snap, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 18:26LAKTrevor MooreENAssists: Anze Kopitar, Vladislav Gavrikov · Wrist, 0.54 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 17:07OTTDrake Batherson: Boarding2 min
- P1 19:30LAKQuinton Byfield: Interference2 min
- P2 13:49OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 15:16OTTCole Reinhardt: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Byfield
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Norris – Batherson8:45
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Gregor – Greig – Ostapchuk7:48
xG 0.22–0.21 (51%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Gaudette – Tkachuk – Stützle12:54
xG 0.42–0.54 (44%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
- Amadio – Reinhardt – Pinto9:36
xG 0.15–0.39 (28%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Chabot6:07
xG 0.54–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Chabot – Bernard-Docker10:04
xG 0.29–0.04 (87%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Hamonic – Sanderson15:13
xG 0.55–0.95 (37%)attempts 13–19goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Fiala – Laferriere10:40
xG 0.59–0.14 (80%)attempts 16–7goals 2–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Moore10:28
xG 0.61–0.56 (52%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
- Foegele – Jeannot – Byfield9:10
xG 0.24–0.35 (41%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Anderson17:37
xG 0.81–0.57 (59%)attempts 20–15goals 1–2
- Moverare – Spence12:51
xG 0.55–0.45 (55%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Edmundson – Clarke13:56
xG 0.46–0.53 (46%)attempts 14–23goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).