Sat, Nov 30, 2024·UBS Arena, Elmont
Buffalo Sabres 0, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 09 | 07 | 013 | 029 |
| NYI | 06 | 28 | 16 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:23NYIAnders LeePPGWGAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Dennis Cholowski · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 9:28NYISimon HolmstromAssists: Anders Lee · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P3 19:52NYISimon HolmstromENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.47 xG0–3
Penalties (5)
- P2 7:03BUFBowen Byram: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:57NYINoah Dobson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 0:56BUFAlex Tuch: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:23NYIBo Horvat: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:42BUFJacob Bryson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacLean won the faceoff against Krebs
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestCozens – Kulich – Benson3:19
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn – Krebs7:34
xG 0.20–0.01 (93%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Tuch – Cozens – Benson5:03
xG 0.22–0.15 (59%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Thompson – Quinn – Peterka4:51
xG 0.20–0.27 (42%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Bryson7:01
xG 0.24–0.01 (96%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Byram – Power3:12
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin2:07
xG 0.08–0.02 (79%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Horvat – Holmstrom12:27
xG 0.66–0.26 (72%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Cizikas – Wahlstrom – MacLean6:06
xG 0.09–0.12 (42%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Martin – Cizikas – Fasching3:44
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Tsyplakov11:15
xG 0.28–0.43 (39%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Hutton7:13
xG 0.24–0.15 (62%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Pulock – Romanov13:21
xG 0.41–0.32 (56%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Cholowski – Hutton2:03
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).