Sat, Nov 30, 2024·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Nashville Predators 2, Minnesota Wild 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 18 | 112 | 07 | 00 | 227 |
| MIN | 114 | 16 | 06 | 12 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:57MINDeclan ChisholmAssists: Frederick Gaudreau · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 19:39NSHFedor SvechkovAssists: Luke Evangelista, Roman Josi · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 2:29NSHRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Roman Josi · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 8:24MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Marco Rossi, Jared Spurgeon · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–2
- OT 1:00MINJared SpurgeonGWGAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:28NSHLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:28MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:33NSHZachary L'Heureux: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:41MINYakov Trenin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:39NSHLuke Evangelista: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:30MINDeclan Chisholm: Holding2 min
- P2 10:14NSHRoman Josi: Interference2 min
- P3 1:34MINMarcus Foligno: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Marchessault – Novak10:21
xG 0.53–0.25 (68%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Marchessault – Jankowski2:04
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Evangelista – Svechkov4:28
xG 0.09–0.02 (84%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Sissons – Smith – L'Heureux7:38
xG 0.21–0.22 (49%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Wilsby9:49
xG 0.34–0.07 (84%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Skjei – Blankenburg13:24
xG 0.49–0.38 (57%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Schenn – Skjei2:54
xG 0.21–0.10 (67%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestEriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy12:11
xG 0.89–0.46 (66%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Johansson – Hartman – Rossi11:50
xG 0.29–0.25 (54%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
- Foligno – Gaudreau – Trenin10:31
xG 0.28–0.32 (47%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Shore – Jones – Khusnutdinov5:23
xG 0.09–0.32 (22%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiddleton – Faber19:35
xG 0.73–0.58 (56%)attempts 17–20goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Merrill9:35
xG 0.32–0.26 (55%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Chisholm16:32
xG 0.61–0.78 (44%)attempts 17–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).