Sat, Nov 30, 2024·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Utah Hockey Club 6, Vegas Golden Knights 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 412 | 211 | 05 | 628 |
| VGK | 010 | 014 | 05 | 029 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:33UTAClayton KellerGWGAssists: Barrett Hayton · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 9:26UTAAlexander KerfootSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P1 10:35UTANick SchmaltzAssists: Clayton Keller, Barrett Hayton · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–0
- P1 18:44UTALogan CooleyAssists: Olli Maatta, Mikhail Sergachev · Deflected, 0.08 xG4–0
- P2 1:02UTAMichael CarconeAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Michael Kesselring · Snap, 0.11 xG5–0
- P2 5:28UTANick SchmaltzPPAssists: Logan Cooley, Dylan Guenther · Snap, 0.13 xG6–0
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:51VGKVictor Olofsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:42UTAKevin Stenlund: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:07VGKNicolas Hague: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:07UTALawson Crouse: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:44VGKTomas Hertl: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:31UTAIan Cole: Interference2 min
- P2 14:57VGKPavel Dorofeyev: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:16UTAMichael Carcone: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:53UTAMichael Kesselring: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestMcBain – Guenther – Cooley8:33
xG 0.48–0.18 (73%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Kerfoot – Stenlund – Carcone8:13
xG 0.74–0.47 (61%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton8:38
xG 0.54–0.56 (49%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli8:18
xG 0.16–0.39 (30%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Välimäki10:11
xG 0.42–0.19 (68%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Maatta – Sergachev12:20
xG 0.63–0.46 (57%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Välimäki – Kesselring2:09
xG 0.12–0.27 (31%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Kolesar – Roy8:29
xG 0.95–0.33 (74%)attempts 25–5goals 0–0
- Barbashev – Eichel – Dorofeyev10:09
xG 0.64–0.36 (64%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Olofsson – Howden9:38
xG 0.00–0.34 (1%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
- Pearson – Schwindt – Holtz9:35
xG 0.17–0.86 (17%)attempts 4–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Korczak13:30
xG 0.49–0.16 (76%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- McNabb – Theodore14:19
xG 0.64–0.59 (52%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
- Pietrangelo – Hanifin14:59
xG 0.73–1.11 (40%)attempts 17–19goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).