Sat, Nov 30, 2024·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
San Jose Sharks 4, Seattle Kraken 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 19 | 310 | 04 | 423 |
| SEA | 013 | 117 | 18 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:54SJSMario FerraroAssists: Mikael Granlund, Timothy Liljegren · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 1:51SJSLuke KuninAssists: Ty Dellandrea, Jake Walman · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 8:59SJSCody CeciGWGAssists: Macklin Celebrini, Jake Walman · Snap, 0.07 xG3–0
- P2 9:45SJSWill SmithAssists: Mikael Granlund, Klim Kostin · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–0
- P2 10:17SEAJaden SchwartzAssists: Matty Beniers, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Snap, 0.03 xG4–1
- P3 6:27SEAJared McCannAssists: Ryker Evans, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 2:48SEAAdam Larsson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 7:38SJSMario Ferraro: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:43SJSLuke Kunin: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beniers won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Zetterlund – Eklund – Celebrini14:14
xG 0.53–0.55 (49%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- Granlund – Kostin – Smith10:16
xG 0.37–0.48 (44%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Dellandrea – Sturm – Cardwell6:47
xG 0.19–0.30 (38%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Toffoli – Wennberg – Kunin10:58
xG 0.11–0.85 (11%)attempts 9–22goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Rutta – Thrun11:24
xG 0.41–0.46 (47%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
- Ceci – Walman17:50
xG 0.53–0.97 (35%)attempts 16–20goals 1–0
- Ferraro – Liljegren14:38
xG 0.26–0.79 (25%)attempts 14–25goals 2–1
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Bjorkstrand – Beniers11:52
xG 0.65–0.14 (82%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Tanev – Tolvanen – Wright9:33
xG 0.56–0.32 (64%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Gourde – Burakovsky – McCann10:11
xG 0.52–0.32 (62%)attempts 17–8goals 1–2
- Stephens – Kartye – Winterton3:12
xG 0.15–0.03 (82%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Evans16:16
xG 1.08–0.42 (72%)attempts 24–12goals 1–1
- Larsson – Dunn16:31
xG 0.97–0.37 (73%)attempts 28–17goals 1–0
- Montour – Dunn3:11
xG 0.13–0.00 (96%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).