Sun, Dec 1, 2024·TD Garden, Boston
Montréal Canadiens 3, Boston Bruins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 07 | 112 | 29 | 328 |
| BOS | 311 | 19 | 210 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:45BOSCharlie McAvoyAssists: Jordan Oesterle, Trent Frederic · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 12:40BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Pavel Zacha, Morgan Geekie · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 12:55BOSCharlie CoyleAssists: Mark Kastelic · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 0:38BOSCharlie McAvoySHGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–4
- P2 5:42MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Arber Xhekaj, Nick Suzuki · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–4
- P3 0:21BOSCharlie CoyleAssists: Cole Koepke · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–5
- P3 2:28MTLEmil HeinemanAssists: Jake Evans, Lane Hutson · Snap, 0.06 xG2–5
- P3 6:38MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 17:46BOSCole KoepkeENAssists: John Beecher, Mark Kastelic · Wrist, 0.78 xG3–6
Penalties (8)
- P2 0:25BOSNikita Zadorov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 10:32MTLLane Hutson: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:32BOSMark Kastelic: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:32MTLArber Xhekaj: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:32MTLArber Xhekaj: Misconduct10 min
- P2 10:32BOSMark Kastelic: Misconduct10 min
- P3 9:46BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:47MTLLane Hutson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Dach
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Anderson – Dvorak – Slafkovský2:04
xG 0.07–0.09 (43%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Gallagher – Dvorak – Slafkovský8:25
xG 0.12–0.23 (35%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Armia – Evans – Heineman8:48
xG 0.26–0.40 (39%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Anderson – Dach – Roy7:54
xG 0.02–0.30 (5%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStruble – Guhle7:55
xG 0.16–0.07 (69%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Struble – Hutson3:15
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Savard – Guhle5:04
xG 0.05–0.07 (44%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestMarchand – Lindholm – Brazeau8:21
xG 0.70–0.14 (83%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Coyle – Frederic – Kastelic9:31
xG 0.55–0.19 (74%)attempts 12–6goals 2–1
- Koepke – Beecher – McLaughlin6:46
xG 0.33–0.07 (82%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Pastrnak – Zacha – Geekie12:53
xG 0.48–0.55 (47%)attempts 11–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestOesterle – McAvoy17:48
xG 1.04–0.37 (74%)attempts 18–15goals 2–0
- Zadorov – Carlo16:51
xG 0.94–0.43 (69%)attempts 16–18goals 2–1
- Peeke – Lohrei11:12
xG 0.45–0.51 (47%)attempts 12–12goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).